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Reverse migration

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Re: Reverse migration

Postby Belgian Pie » 18 Apr 2012, 14:45

Portuguese are heading to Brazil, and their previous African colonies, Spaniards going to Argentina and other South American countries ... the best option is to go somewhere the jobs and future money is ... why shouldn't people migrate back home to have shot at it.
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Re: Reverse migration

Postby scomargo » 18 Apr 2012, 14:52

Icon wrote:I was reading this more in terms like what happened in Taiwan when the first high tech entreprises took off -the Texas Instruments, the Acers, etc- which was fueled by making conditions here suitable for people who had left Taiwan for their studies to want to come back and work in Taiwan.

Texas Instruments is a Taiwanese company? I never knew that.

I do agree with the general sentiment in this thread that costs are definitely lower in Asia, so the overhead associated with running a business is a lot more manageable in Asia than it would be in the US.
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Re: Reverse migration

Postby Icon » 18 Apr 2012, 15:14

Don't quote me on that, but what I mean is that it was one of the oldest and better known worldwide, from Taiwan to the world exports, manned by Taiwanese who had studied abroad and hence were able to deliver the product required at that time: pocket calculators. :D
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Re: Reverse migration

Postby Shaktipalooza » 18 Apr 2012, 18:28

headhonchoII wrote:All in all though the US is going to come back strong and the whole Asia is the only future is overblown.

I think the US is on a long downhill slide towards equilibrium with the rest of the world. In recent years the continuation of the American lifestyle has been fueled by debt, not productivity. Only when manufacturing is as cost effective as asia will the US economy level out.

For now, the growth is in Asia. What happens when the western debt buble goes bust is impossible to say with so much interconnectivity. In the US I'm expecting a continued erosion of the middle class, savers being punished, and retirees going broke.
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Reverse migration

Postby headhonchoII » 18 Apr 2012, 21:25

That's been predicted before in the 1970s but America came roaring back. America has better demographic trends then most countries, with natural gas and oil they can retain energy dependence. Technologically it's in the lead in most industries.

The large national debt can be dealt with but it needs some inflation and economic growth there and pare back the military spending. I guess America will split into more obvious classes but middle class and the upper class should still prosper. The underclass and working class need to watch out.

Asian growth is a win for the US aswell as it creates more demand for advanced goods and services.

Inflation is a problem for retirees, I agree on that score.
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Re: Reverse migration

Postby Taiwan Luthiers » 26 Apr 2012, 10:31

I just know for me to start my own guitar repair shop in the US would require a lot more money, in both rent and compliance costs. I would need all kinds of insurance, and then probably fire marshall permission to store paints and finishes.

I would more likely get a job as a guitar tech there (much more work opportunities for that than in Taiwan, guitar stores in Taiwan would not hire a guitar tech because they would rather sell you an instrument than help you fix it up right) as it would be easier than starting up my own operation. In Taiwan I have no choice but to start up my own operation, simply for the fact that I wouldn't know where to get a job as a guitar tech.

In Taiwan almost all tradesmen are self employed. The only ones who aren't self employed are white collar workers, bus drivers, or any other jobs/operation too big for one person to do by himself. Even installations that B&Q says they do are done by self employed tradesmen who are contracted by them.

As for the US economy they seem to be in a decline, their debt is out of control and so are their government spending, which is needed to boost their economy. Industries are fleeing the US (other than consultants) due to excessive compliance costs, and the Gibson raid last year wasn't helping (I am surprised that they haven't completely closed their operation in the US). Not sure what the future will hold but then I don't know how the economy works, which seems to be more complex than most people realize. For example right now the US economy is a bit like, you get 100,000 US a year, but you've spent 200,000 US that year and anything more is credit. The total debt amounted to about $500,000 and increasing, which for most people would have resulted in bankruptcy as if your debt keeps increasing banks will not continue to finance you. Not sure what makes the US able to get away with enormous debt, as historically countries in that situation has experienced hyperinflation followed by economic ruin (Weimar Germany for example).

This could be a reason why people are migrating out of the US... they are scared.
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