Real Estate Much Cheaper in the Future?

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Real Estate Much Cheaper in the Future?

Postby PostMaster » 20 Dec 2011, 13:08

The Chinese real estate bubble is popping...prices for new apartments being slashed 30%-50% in Beijing and Shanghai.

Has this started in Taiwan too?

Actual examples would be helpful. E.g. place, seen how long ago, discounts, prices, etc.
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Re: Real Estate Much Cheaper in the Future?

Postby *monkey* » 20 Dec 2011, 14:02

Not yet. When the property speculators start throwing themselves off highrise buildings, then you know the time has come.
I have a nice bottle of wine and a cigar saved for that day.
Floggings will continue until morale improves

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Re: Real Estate Much Cheaper in the Future?

Postby robert » 20 Dec 2011, 14:54

PostMaster wrote:The Chinese real estate bubble is popping...prices for new apartments being slashed 30%-50% in Beijing and Shanghai.


Source?
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Re: Real Estate Much Cheaper in the Future?

Postby PostMaster » 20 Dec 2011, 15:19

robert wrote:
PostMaster wrote:The Chinese real estate bubble is popping...prices for new apartments being slashed 30%-50% in Beijing and Shanghai.


Source?


http://www.businessinsider.com/foreign- ... sh-2011-12

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-1 ... awaii.html
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Re: Real Estate Much Cheaper in the Future?

Postby Jefferson » 20 Dec 2011, 21:13

People have been talking about a bubble in Taipei for 10 years. With rents so cheap and salaries so low in comparison to apartment values, it is surprising that the run has lasted this long. I think the "long play" for those who own multiple properties has always been to hold out until private residences are open to Chinese buyers. In the meanwhile, speculators are paying mortgages by renting out flats. In any case, for now prices remain where they are, more or less. How long that will last is anyone's guess.

Hah hah just noticed this was my first post in nearly 3 years.
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Re: Real Estate Much Cheaper in the Future?

Postby PostMaster » 20 Dec 2011, 21:51

Jefferson wrote:People have been talking about a bubble in Taipei for 10 years. With rents so cheap and salaries so low in comparison to apartment values, it is surprising that the run has lasted this long. I think the "long play" for those who own multiple properties has always been to hold out until private residences are open to Chinese buyers. In the meanwhile, speculators are paying mortgages by renting out flats. In any case, for now prices remain where they are, more or less. How long that will last is anyone's guess.

Hah hah just noticed this was my first post in nearly 3 years.



That may have been the case, but will Chinese buyers be that keen to invest in a "foreign" country after suffering a huge real estate collapse in their local market? My opinion is definitely not. Once bitten, twice shy. I guess only time will tell though. 2012 is certainly going to be an interesting year.

Thanks for the post.
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Re: Real Estate Much Cheaper in the Future?

Postby Confuzius » 20 Dec 2011, 22:50

I spurred a different, yet related discussion with a question about the cost for real estate: http://www.forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopic.php?f=80&t=105763
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Re: Real Estate Much Cheaper in the Future?

Postby headhonchoII » 21 Dec 2011, 10:15

PostMaster wrote:
Jefferson wrote:People have been talking about a bubble in Taipei for 10 years. With rents so cheap and salaries so low in comparison to apartment values, it is surprising that the run has lasted this long. I think the "long play" for those who own multiple properties has always been to hold out until private residences are open to Chinese buyers. In the meanwhile, speculators are paying mortgages by renting out flats. In any case, for now prices remain where they are, more or less. How long that will last is anyone's guess.

Hah hah just noticed this was my first post in nearly 3 years.



That may have been the case, but will Chinese buyers be that keen to invest in a "foreign" country after suffering a huge real estate collapse in their local market? My opinion is definitely not. Once bitten, twice shy. I guess only time will tell though. 2012 is certainly going to be an interesting year.

Thanks for the post.


Hi Jefferson long time no see around here. The problem will not only be if they are keen to invest (who wants to invest in a falling market and the DPP don't want all these people getting in the back door and changing politics here), the main problem is they will have no money to invest here. This is a mute point because the market is already open to Chinese investors anyway, they just haven't shown much interest. If they want to invest they can buy a house in HK, Australia, Canada or the US and get residency visas for them and their families. That's what the rats have been doing over there, especially government officials and their compradres.
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Re: Real Estate Much Cheaper in the Future?

Postby Jefferson » 21 Dec 2011, 12:09

I had thought commercial property was open but not residential property. Is the market completely open at this point?

Speaking of Hong Kong, according to the UN, out of the 38 most advanced countries/territories, HK has the highest Gini coefficient (measure of income inequality). I imagine that could in part be due to real estate related income. (Irrelevant, yet interesting fact in its own right: The USA is #3.)
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Re: Real Estate Much Cheaper in the Future?

Postby creztor » 21 Dec 2011, 12:29

Real estate will drop in price in the future. No, I don't have a source but do some reading and you'll see that this ponzi/cheap credit game that lasted up until now cannot go on forever. Deleveraging is coming.
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