Should Taiwan Create an Earthquake Prediction Center?

[JeffG]

Currently under government rules no one is allowed to publically announce or predict an earthquake, see this link: Chinese: http://law.moj.gov.tw/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?PCode=K0100003 English: http://law.moj.gov.tw/Eng/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?PCode=K0100003

Regardless of the current law, I am curious to know how many in the foreign community would be interested in knowing beforehand if an earthquake is about to happen, where, when and the magnitude of said quake? And should a center for earthquake prediction be established either privately or through the government? Contrary to what a lot of people think, earthquake prediction is indeed possible although, much like weather forecasts is not perfect.

Amazingly to me even China has such a center, but under Taiwan law, no one is allowed to do so. It makes me wonder what these law makers are doing in Taiwan. Japan also has such a center though is recently under scrutiny.

What's your opinion?

[sandman]

I'd need to see firm stats from existing prediction centers showing that they indeed are worth spending time and money on before I'd offer an opinion.
Plus, they have several seismology centres around the country. Are these different from prediction centers?
Also (and this is the clincher), you've evidently forgotten they already have that alligator farm down in Kaohsiung where the beasts all clamber over each other and roar when there's about to be a quake. No need, therefore, for further needless spending.

[JeffG]

Your first point is noted. I agree that more information is needed on current existing centers.

Seismology centers are different from a prediction center. How so? Seismology centers will only send alerts a few seconds/minutes in advance whereas a prediction center could more accurately determine when, where and how big perhaps a week or month in advance. As I know currently there are more sensors being put into place that could possibly add more time to the alert, but nothing like a prediction center could.

Concerning those alligator farms down south, see here's the thing though; regardless of any existing alligator farm those predictions are not made public at the time they roar, at least not to my knowledge. I know of several unofficial places that do similar things, but none of them have been made public, most likely because of the law stated above. How many people know those places exist anyway and can they predict for the whole island? The point of a center would be to compare notes from several experts and then issue an intelligent warning to the public rather than just a random prediction. In addition that perhaps these predictions could be put together with local weather forecasts.

[sandman]

Your first point is noted. I agree that more information is needed on current existing centers.

Seismology centers are different from a prediction center. How so? Seismology centers will only send alerts a few seconds/minutes in advance whereas a prediction center could more accurately determine when, where and how big perhaps a week or month in advance. As I know currently there are more sensors being put into place that could possibly add more time to the alert, but nothing like a prediction center could.

The alligator part was a joke! And yeah, I cannot imagine that ANYONE -- local or foreign, anywhere in the world -- wouldn't like to know in advance that a quake was coming, when, where and how powerful!
As for a warning a week or a month ahead, you've GOT to be kidding! One false warning is all it would take! ONE day of the science parks shutting assembly lines/wafer fabs -- hell! Even one HOUR! -- thanks to an earthquake prediction and there would be a whole bunch of Cabinet ministers and quake predictors looking for work.

[Deuce Dropper]

Earthquakes are not easily predictable.

So you want the government to spend money on something that works some of the time? Last I checked the R.O.C. was trying to move away from that construct.

[JeffG]

[/quote]
The alligator part was a joke!
As for a warning a week or a month ahead, you've GOT to be kidding! One false warning is all it would take! ONE day of the science parks shutting assembly lines/wafer fabs -- hell! Even one HOUR! -- thanks to an earthquake prediction and there would be a whole bunch of Cabinet ministers and quake predictors looking for work. [/quote]

LOL! But, beleive it or not there are people using animals to do prediction, a farm, that part I have only heard about, but not seen information directly related to it. Perhaps there really is an alligator farm in the south, I'd have to check, I would not be surprised that one might actually exist...
As for your other comments, indeed one wrong prediction could cause problems, but look at this way, how many times has the government gotten a typhoon wrong? Too many to count. So… actually based on this theory the government should stop making typhoon predictions also? I am not challenging you, I am just creating a discussion here.

Perhaps this center is just simply a website that provides perdition information at the beginning where if people want to know they look, if they don’t want to know they don’t look, it’s that simple. And the community and the government simple watch and see how it goes...

As to your comment about the ministers, is your meaning they would want to do the predicting or they would be out of work because they severely messed up? I am assuming you mean the latter.

Frankly I wouldn't want the government involved in any of the predictions, this would purely be from people with a track record and who are considered experts in their field, and I know a few that might just qualify.

[JeffG]

Earthquakes are not easily predictable.

So you want the government to spend money on something that works some of the time? Last I checked the R.O.C. was trying to move away from that construct.

Apparently neither is weather, again see how many times they botched that up.

Actually the government really doesn’t have to pay for anything, the public could fund it, or it could all be funded privately.

[Belgian Pie]

Impossible to predict earthquakes ... Location? Depth? Strength? Duration? Time? impossible!

[StuartCa]

Earthquakes are not easily predictable.

So you want the government to spend money on something that works some of the time? Last I checked the R.O.C. was trying to move away from that construct.

Actually the government really doesn’t have to pay for anything, the public could fund it, or it could all be funded privately.

And why would the public do that? That's what taxes are for.

[sandman]

Who exactly do you know who has a track record in earthquake prediction? And where the HELL was he in the runup to last March 11?