Should Taiwan Create an Earthquake Prediction Center?

[JeffG]

Per my prognosticaor, you should look for more quakes in the very near future somewhere around 35 km SSW of Hualian County.

That may be so...
But, I'm going with the idea that there's going to be a bigger one north near Yilan or south near Pingdong as the stresses build up in those locations from all this "slip sliding away" in ONE mid-coast region.

@zyzzx - I was also enroute from Portland to Seattle on I-5 as Mt. St. Helens was blowing up on May 18th, 1980. That was very cool to see! We got bumped off I-5 due the freeway closure, and managed to make it over the Toutle River bridge on a two-laner highway before it got whisked away... Bye Bye bridge!

TaiwanTeacher: I think Zender was being facetious... The list above shows 80 quakes all SSW of Hualian County with an average distance of 35km each...

In addition, however, you would be correct to make a presumption that a bigger quake may occur along the east coast. I must reiterate that prediction is possible as I have seen it work. Accuracy is still seems to be an issue, however, and with current models it may or may not ever improve over time...

[zyzzx]

Actually, if that Hualian sequence is all aftershocks, then it's very predictable. The number of aftershocks of each magnitude tends to be very consistent. So zender's prediction is a good one, since there are still more to come . That's probably the one situation where you can predict earthquakes. Of course it doesn't help all that much, since you can't do it until the biggest one, the main shock, has already happened.

@zyzzx - I was also enroute from Portland to Seattle on I-5 as Mt. St. Helens was blowing up on May 18th, 1980. That was very cool to see! We got bumped off I-5 due the freeway closure, and managed to make it over the Toutle River bridge on a two-laner highway before it got whisked away... Bye Bye bridge!

This sounds awesome! I would love to see something like this (assuming that death isn't involved). I lived in Iceland for a while and was so ready for an eruption (we had our plan all worked out), but of course it didn't happen until well after I left. Maybe someday...

[TaiwanTeacher]

TaiwanTeacher: I think Zender was being facetious... The list above shows 80 quakes all SSW of Hualian County with an average distance of 35km each...

In addition, however, you would be correct to make a presumption that a bigger quake may occur along the east coast. I must reiterate that prediction is possible as I have seen it work. Accuracy is still seems to be an issue, however, and with current models it may or may not ever improve over time...

I tend to agree with you on the general principle and possiblity for predicting significant quakes, and reaffirm that Taiwan makes for an very good seismic laboratory, aside from all the complications associated with three tectonic plates colliding in the same location. I've been doing my amatuer geologist thing for awhile now, and I feel there has to be a pattern to be found in what's happening here, and perhaps one that can be applied to other areas on Earth. However, I am not a walking super-computer, and the factors/indicators are so many and so diversified that it makes it difficult to assign "risk" based on only one or two of them. Fortunately, there is a wealth of data being generated hereabouts, and that may lead to formulating a model. One must bear in mind that models for even ONE fault in Taiwan are not likely to be universally applied to others, even if they are nearby. The ocean area just off the Su-Hua Hwy appears to me to be a good place to start with a model, as there are a sufficient number of larger (5+) quakes there so as to confirm validity. Perhaps a summation of energies released over time along individual falult lines will show there is a correlation between some of them, e.g, "Once the energy total released near Pingdong, plus a factor of the energy released over in Taichung, minus a factor of the energy released along the Su-Hua area exceeds a certain limit, then a larger quake in Su-Hua might be expected." Something like that.

[zender]

Allow me to quote myself.

Here is what I said on 6/18:

Per my prognosticaor, you should look for more quakes in the very near future somewhere around 35 km SSW of Hualian County.

And here is what happened the very next day:
6/19, 01:49, 34.9 km SSW of Hualian, 3.8

I have The GIFT!

[TaiwanTeacher]

Oh really? That prognostication was NOTHING!

"The gift" was to predict the two quakes, one in Pingdong and one off of Yilan that happened yesterday. Check my prediction and the record!
(Granted, I thought they'd both be closer to a 5...)

As for mid Hualian County, it's still rolling steadily... now up over 90 medium quakes in the past few days. I still don't understand what's up with that.

I'll go out on limb and say, Nantou gets a 4+ within a week, once Pingdong and Yilan shift a little more.

[zender]

Oh really? That prognostication was NOTHING! . . . (blah blah blah . . incoherent rambling and boasting . . .)

Nothing? NOTHING?!

I predicted a quake to occur soon; it happened 14 hours later less than a city block from where I said.

And you say that's nothing.

I have THE GIFT! You have that year-old fruitcake that Gramma gave to Mom and she forgot about after taking up freezer space until your sad birthday rolled around.

[JeffG]

Ok guys, I'd prefer this thread isn't shut down because of this.. The topic was should Taiwan create an earthquake prediction center.. not a thread to make predictions regardless is real or not.

[Meadows]

I predict there will be a 3-4.5m quake SOMEWHERE in Taiwan today.

But seriously, something like Japan's early warning system (which isn't a prediction, but a "get the fuck under a table your shit is going to get fucked up in 5 seconds" kind of thing) would be a good idea: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=509aQ6Gsou4

[TaiwanTeacher]

I predict there will be a 3-4.5m quake SOMEWHERE in Taiwan today.

But seriously, something like Japan's early warning system (which isn't a prediction, but a "get the fuck under a table your shit is going to get fucked up in 5 seconds" kind of thing) would be a good idea: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=509aQ6Gsou4

HAHAHA.
Reminds me of the Cold War days in the 60s when the alarm siren would wail, and the teacher would shout out the orders: "Crawl under your desk! Put your head between your knees! GOOD! Now.... kiss your ass goodbye!"

[Icon]

Regarding predictions, may I remind you -and inform the newbies- of Professor Wang, the guy who predicted a quake that would split the island in two and swindled a lot of money from his followerrs when they bought a lot of containers as shelters and set them in nantou -of all places? Remember that one?