I'd say that China Post article looks about right. There may be a small chance that the market will heat up again, but there's a ten times greater chance that it will cool, either slowly or rapidly.
Kaikai, I think you're doing exactly the right thing to sell and rent until prices have dipped to a more rationally justifiable level. Congratulations on making such a solid profit from your first two forays into the housing market here. It's a lot easier way to build up your capital than working, isn't it!
I have put my house on the market, but I'm not very optimistic that I'll be able to find a buyer. An odd thing about the Linkou housing market is that houses don't seem to attract a premium over apartments: the price per ping is roughly the same for both. That seems very strange to me, and I struggle to understand it. If you buy a house like mine, you are getting the whole of the space that you pay for. If it says 70 ping on the title deed, you have at least 70 ping of indoor space to occupy. If you buy an apartment, you lose as much as a third of what you pay for to communal space. So to have 70 ping under your own ceiling, you need to buy around 100 ping. In Linkou, new or newish houses and apartments are both averagely fetching in the region NT$200~300,000 per ping, with more at the lower than upper end of that range.
On advice from the real estate agents who are handling the sale of my place, we're asking for a bit over NT$18 million for a 5-floor, 70-ping-on-the-deed, 85-ping-of-total-floorspace townhouse that's less than 4 years old, well constructed, and well fitted out and decorated. In other words, the same price as someone is willing to pay for Kaikai's mid-sized, 17-year-old apartment in Yonghe. But of course, that's just our asking price, and any buyer knows that there must be a lot of room to negotiate a much lower transaction price. We've set our bottom line at NT$16 million in hand, after paying the agent's cut. If they sell for around NT$16.7 million or more, they'll get 4%, we'll get our 16 million. If they sell for between 16 and 16.7, we'll get the 16 and they'll get the difference. If they sell for more than 16.7, they'll get 4%, we'll get the rest. So far, after about 3 weeks, they've brought 3 potential buyers to look, but none of those has followed up. My sister-in-law, who works for the selling agents, says that there's been a sharp drop in people looking to buy since mid-May. The agents have 3 months to find us a buyer at our initial price, and if they don't, we'll probably need to reduce the asking price. I'm fully expecting that to be necessary, and don't hold out much realistic hope of getting more than 15 million. A few months ago, I'd have expected it to be snapped up quickly at 15 or even 16 million.
If so many people are paying 20 million or more to buy unfinished apartments in Linkou (as has been the case), why should it be so much harder to find buyers willing to pay as much or even significantly less for a substantially larger terraced house in a fully occupied and fairly attractive gated community? I would much rather live in a house than in an apartment. My parents-in-law and sister-in-law both live in similar houses in Linkou, and they'd never consider swapping them for apartments, so I can't understand why there aren't more people in the market looking for houses rather than apartments in the same price range.
I would actually be very happy living in my house if only it wasn't in Linkou and if only I didn't have such awful neighbours. But whereas I really detest living in Linkou, a lot of Taiwanese apparently think it's a wonderful place to live, so my reasons for not wanting to stay here wouldn't apply to most people house-hunting in Linkou.
Anyway, if I do get lucky and receive an offer at an acceptable price, I'll sell without any hesitation and rent a home temporarily while I either search for a replacement in a cheaper location (ideally further south) or, like Kaikai, wait until there's a big dip in prices, and then buy again in a location I like better in the north (ideally Xindian).
If I prioritized the acquisition of wealth above other purposes in life, I might still have come to Taiwan to study Chinese, but I doubt I would have remained here.