Muzha Man wrote:
SillyWilly wrote:How do I know house prices will drop? Simple, take a drive through Linkou and see all the new, unfinished apartments - EVERYWHERE! Some of the newer finished buildings have had 20-30% occupancy the last 12 months and with new units coming online - those numbers are bound to drop even further. Some buildings have as few as 5 tenants. Linkou is starting to look like Vegas-style overbuilding. And we all know what happened when THAT bubble burst...ouch! Las Vegas real estate is still down over 50% from its peak. The Linkou property market is going to get clobbered..MRT..or no MRT. The overbuilding is really ridiculous especially considering new apartment building construction is starting soon and apparently interest rates are reversing (or at least starting to reverse).
I agree in the long run it has to. But Danshui and Sanxia are no different in terms of over-construction and they have not burst yet. It could still be many many years.
Danshui and Sanxia may be no different from Linkou in terms of over-construction, but they are vastly different in terms of intrinsic value.
Danshui, in particular, has great natural beauty, proximity to mountains, the river, and the ocean in the more scenic direction along the north coast, and historic charm. Certain current disadvantages there -- mainly poor road transportation access -- will actually work to the benefit of long-term investors as the roads leading there are improved and the light rail system is extended further along the coast in the future. So I think that a lot of property in Danshui and the vicinity further along the coast has room to rise further in value. That said, I would not currently be looking at units in highrises and would steer clear of the footprint of the growing concrete jungle there, looking instead for local values off the beaten path.
Linkou, on the other hand, has very little to recommend it, except surrounding commercial development such as in peripheral transportation industries, which are likely to increasingly detract from the quality of life even as they drive economic growth.