Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

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Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

Postby TainanCowboy » 22 Aug 2011, 16:14

Looking aty who will fill the power vaccum in Libya a few groups appear to be poised for stepping into the void.
I just received a link to this article which lays out the background of the major contenders. No real surprises - although I expect a surprise to pop-up as things go along.

Gaddafi under siege: Two CIA-backed groups, an al-Qaeda-linked LIFG on top of power stakes
Daya Gamage – Asian Tribune Foreign News Desk, Washington, DC. 22 August
Image
Abu Yahya al-Libi, once a leading operative of LIFG and now member of al Qaeda

With the imminent departure of Muammar Gaddafi from absolute power as the rebels are closing on Tripoli two CIA-backed Libyan groups and an al-Qaeda affiliated Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), a declared foreign terrorist organization (FTO) by the US State Department since 2004, could emerge as real power in Libya when it is clear that the rebel military forces are a patchwork of armed groups, former soldiers and freelance militias including self-appointed neighborhood gangs.

The main rebel group, based in Benghazi in the country's east, consists of former government ministers who have defected, and longstanding opposition figures, representing a range of political views including Arab nationalists, Islamists, secularists, socialists and businessmen.

With the fall of Gaddafi’s 42-year rule the National Front for the Salvation of Libya (NFSL), the Libyan National Army (LNA), military wing of the NFSL and Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) are likely to emerge to become the real power behind any administration in post-Gaddafi Libya.

Groups who had been organizing against Gadhafi for years are at least partly responsible for provoking the protests which started last February. The composition of forces opposing Gadhafi consists of a wide range of groups of people each with their own agenda but whose common purpose is his overthrow.

Some of these groups formed the National Transitional Council (TNC) in Benghazi on February 27, 2011 to act as the political face of the revolution. Politicians, former military officers, tribal leaders, academics and businessmen from Eastern Libya created the Council to serve as a transitional government and to wrap the opposition in an aura of respectability.

But the three well organized movements are the NFSL, its military arm LNA and the Islamist LIFG.

The National Front for the Salvation of Libya (NFSL) established on October 7, 1981, was trained and supported by the CIA and was involved in an unsuccessful assassination attempt on Gadhafi on May 8, 1984.

The Libyan National Army (LNA), military wing of the NFSL, was founded on June 21, 1988 by Khalifa Hafter who, according to a Washington-based think tank, the Jamestown Foundation, had: "strong backing from the Central Intelligence agency". The think tank also reports that the CIA arranged the entry of LNA officers into the United States where they established a training camp. Hafter arrived in Benghazi in March 2011 to join the forces attempting to overthrow Gadhafi.

Another major organization engaged in overthrowing Gadhafi is the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) which has close ties to al Qaida and has been designated as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) by the US State Department in 2004. The LIFG was established in 1995 to oppose Gadhafi's secular state by Libyans who had fought in Afghanistan. They have been committed to supporting jihadi groups everywhere and contributed a significant number of people to fight the U.S. in Iraq.

The LIFG appeared to be largely defunct by the mid-2000s, until documents captured in Sinjar, Iraq by Coalition Forces showed that over 100 Libyans from LIFG strongholds in eastern Libya had joined al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) between 2006 and 2007....(more at link)


CIA, al Queda, the Muslim Brotherhood....its going to be one hell of a picnic (read - shooting match) sorting this out.
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Re: Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

Postby pqkdzrwt » 22 Aug 2011, 17:13

Yep, This situation has always been a WTF, what on earth makes people think the outcome of this "war" is going to result in a better situation for the people of Libya? (Unless you consider Taliban'esque leadership a step forward, I never know on this forum).
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Re: Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

Postby Chris » 22 Aug 2011, 17:18

The probability of oppressive dictatorship given Gaddafi: 100%.
The probability of oppressive dictatorship after Gaddafi: less than 100%.

Better the unknown you don't know than the devil you do know.
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Re: Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

Postby Belgian Pie » 22 Aug 2011, 17:20

Now ... it's time to move on to Syria ...
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Re: Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

Postby Gman » 22 Aug 2011, 17:30

Chris wrote:The probability of oppressive dictatorship given Gaddafi: 100%.
The probability of oppressive dictatorship after Gaddafi: less than 100%.

Better the unknown you don't know than the devil you do know.



:roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: Actually Chris, The proper saying is; "Better the devil you know than the devil you don't know". :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:

But, don't let reality get in the way.

BTW, is there an unknown that you do know?

Admit it, you're really a closet Republican aren't you?
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Re: Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

Postby bigduke6 » 22 Aug 2011, 17:38

[quote="TainanCowboy"]Looking aty who will fill the power vaccum in Libya a few groups appear to be poised for stepping into the void.
I just received a link to this article which lays out the background of the major contenders. No real surprises - although I expect a surprise to pop-up as things go along.

[quote]Gaddafi under siege: Two CIA-backed groups, an al-Qaeda-linked LIFG on top of power stakes
Daya Gamage – Asian Tribune Foreign News Desk, Washington, DC. 22 August
Image
Abu Yahya al-Libi, once a leading operative of LIFG and now member of al Qaeda

Now he is definitely a closet Zionist!! :)

Once Gaddaffi goes you will really see a bodycount that Duke Nuken could not hope to rival. The new regime will make Gaddaffi look like a teddy bear if this guy is what is coming next.
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Re: Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

Postby Chris » 22 Aug 2011, 18:07

Gman wrote:
Chris wrote:The probability of oppressive dictatorship given Gaddafi: 100%.
The probability of oppressive dictatorship after Gaddafi: less than 100%.

Better the unknown you don't know than the devil you do know.



:roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: Actually Chris, The proper saying is; "Better the devil you know than the devil you don't know". :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:

Of course I know the saying. But it's nonsensical, mathematically speaking. It's a form of thinking that keeps tyrants in power.
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Re: Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

Postby Gman » 22 Aug 2011, 18:41

Sure you know the proper saying :roll:. Even if I grant you that you know the saying, It is clear you don't understand it's proper meaning or use. It's not a saying that is limited to tyrants in power. The saying is general in nature about having to choose between two bad choices. It is not 'nonsense' and you saying so just reinforces the fact that you don't know the saying or its proper use. Although it's not a mathematical expression, so yes, from a mathematical perspective it is nonsense. But, we aren't discussing math.

Regardless, what you propose is stilly. The premise that replacing a tyrant you do know with one you don't know is preferable, is just plain dumb. Even if you merely replace one tyrant with one that is the same or only 95% as bad. It is still not preferable due to all the destruction and loss of life associated with the transition.

Time will tell if this was a good thing or not. And, time will tell whether Western intervention was a good thing or not. I'm afraid history is against you though.
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Re: Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

Postby Chuanzao El Ale Destroyer » 22 Aug 2011, 20:44

I predict a long, bloody civil war where everybody gets killed. All the people with fight in them get killed. The peaceful people hiding in their homes get taken over by Taliban rule. Taliban rule lasts 1,000,000.000 years. I'm an optimist.
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Re: Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

Postby Charlie Jack » 22 Aug 2011, 21:23

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