How can you predict stuff without models? And in the absence of prediction, all you can do is wake up one day and say: Fuck me! Where did all that water come from?
Or. Fuck me where did your dumb-ass argument come from? The issue is not models but ones that are accurate and correctly predict outcomes. Would you say this is the case with the ones that we have er predicting the climate? no weather? no atmospheric, er sunspots, water vapors no it was CO2 but only during the summer and months with J not the one with an A, er but mountains, southern Hemisphere, no polar ice cap, no polar bears, it is polar bears that I want to focus on because the fish stocks, no the penguins, er was it the ice bergs...
You use models all the time, though you don't notice it. You model the way others normally drive, and fit your reactions into what you predict the majority of people will do. Sometimes you encounter something that runs counter to your model, and you may crash. Other times you move to a place where your model isn't valid anymore, and you may crash. What is so wrong when a scientist models stuff bigger than what fits into a small brain and predicts larger things based on that?
Precisely and when I get my hand burned three times touching the same red spot on the stove, I have probably figured out that, even when drunk, not to touch the "hot spot." So, likewise, when my dumb-ass friend who has a terrible record of losing on investments tells me yet again that he has found the new way to make millions fast, do I even reach for my wallet? do I even bother to spend half an hour listening to this variation on and endless theme of failures? Or should I start modeling my life on the horoscope in the daily newspaper because I, like the climate change alarmists, am desperate to fit my reality into generic predictions? Or better yet... endless tarot card readings? or perhaps the food of the week to stop cancer? to stop eating because it causes cancer? or or OR.... you talk about models, but you forget to differentiate between those that are tried and true and those that are endlessly recalibrated to fit whatever reality is to be shoved down our throats... which do you think that the climate change alarmists are using? and which are you buying? and based on the model of intelligence that I have used to get through my life to a fairly successful degree, I would like to raise with you now the best way to make a million bucks... but before I send you my secret models, you should send me $10,000 to prove your sincerity and to demonstrate that you can be trusted. Deal?