China revolt - next on the list?

[finley]

Can't see China undergoing another revolution as such ... since it's too big to govern as a single entity, any revolution would inevitably have only localised effect. But it's certainly in trouble. People are still gushing about "the economy", but the modus operandi is still basically to give away China piece-by-piece to foreigners are low, low prices. That's not sustainable. I suspect China will simply slow down and trundle to a halt, until it finally disappears up its own backside with a whimper. There will be no revolt, no grab for power, because there is no power - no centralised power - to grab. The emperor is not just far away; he doesn't even exist.

The problem is, when China does eventually slip back into the dark ages, they'll be even worse off than when they started. Their food and water supplies are now completely dependent on massive expenditures of cash and energy. When those two things dry up, there's going to be Trouble, and it ain't going to be pretty.

[yuli]

There will be no revolt, no grab for power, because there is no power - no centralised power - to grab. The emperor is not just far away; he doesn't even exist.

That is an interesting perspective - I wouldn't go as far as you go here, but i certainly think the central power is overhyped: regional and local players in the power game hide under the big umbrella "CPC" (or "CCP") right now, but i suspect that at the time the umbrella develops serious rips, many of those players will shuck that allegiance as fast as possible, causing the rips to spread and the umbrella to fail. I think another warlords era is quite possible, with different parts of the military taking different sides in new regional conflicts.

The problem is, when China does eventually slip back into the dark ages, they'll be even worse off than when they started. Their food and water supplies are now completely dependent on massive expenditures of cash and energy. When those two things dry up, there's going to be Trouble, and it ain't going to be pretty.

Not sure about "dark ages", but serious environmental problems and certain environmental limiting factors are already putting serious wrenches into the gears. One example, to mine the large coal reserves both China and Mongolia have, a lot of water is needed, and water is in increasingly short supply in both countries (and China's plans to divert water from the south to the north will not go down well with its southern neighbours who have been relying on exactly that same water for all of their history).

* * *

While looking for something entirely different i came across this article:
"The top 10 unicorns of China policy"
http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/blog/12340
Interesting reading, to say the least...

[Gman]

[

The problem is, when China does eventually slip back into the dark ages, they'll be even worse off than when they started. Their food and water supplies are now completely dependent on massive expenditures of cash and energy. When those two things dry up, there's going to be Trouble, and it ain't going to be pretty.

Not sure about "dark ages", but serious environmental problems and certain environmental limiting factors are already putting serious wrenches into the gears. One example, to mine the large coal reserves both China and Mongolia have, a lot of water is needed, and water is in increasingly short supply in both countries (and China's plans to divert water from the south to the north will not go down well with its southern neighbours who have been relying on exactly that same water for all of their history).

While looking for something entirely different i came across this article:
"The top 10 unicorns of China policy"
http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/blog/12340
Interesting reading, to say the least...

Based on history dark ages might be optimistic. One of the points made in a recent article I read;

Meanwhile, if you think the US is going to have a hard time adapting to the new realities, just be glad you are not Chinese, because - as Rick Maybury pointed out in his Summit speech - every time China has entered a period of significant social change, the death toll has reliably run to the millions.

[Benjamin K]

Chinese people will be free soon.

[Baas Babelaas]

And with my planned departure from the Empire next year, I can watch the collapse from afar..

[finley]

Chinese people will be free soon.

You mean in the "Arbeit macht frei" sense, presumably ...

[yuli]

Based on history dark ages might be optimistic. One of the points made in a recent article I read;

Meanwhile, if you think the US is going to have a hard time adapting to the new realities, just be glad you are not Chinese, because - as Rick Maybury pointed out in his Summit speech - every time China has entered a period of significant social change, the death toll has reliably run to the millions.

Hm... sounds kind of "dark age"-y to me...

[Hartzell]

Here is a recounting of more bad prospects for the Chinese economy.

China will have to rethink economy
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editori ... 2003518083

[yuli]

China will have to rethink economy

Surely many people in China are ("desperately") thinking about alternatives to the current rush toward the abyss. But when the sound of the real-estate bubble popping, for example, is getting too loud to bear, the government will probably do something stupid, like putting more energy into the confrontations with Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines - I don't think on the domestic level, in terms of the economy, they have the option do what they need (and likely even want) to do, because they have painted themselves into a corner with what they have been promising to "the people".

Again that story about the real estate bubble:
http://www.sbs.com.au/dateline/story/wa ... ost-Cities

[louisfriend]

For Taiwan's sake I hope the CCP doesn't collapse anytime soon. More than likely it would result in an attempt to force unification with Taiwan