Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

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Re: Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

Postby urodacus » 17 May 2012, 19:27

Yet the status quo, fragile and eroding as it is, is 95% of the way towards de jure independence, isn't it? So why is the last mile so hard?

because China is a big arrogant and, most importantly, increasingly confident bully.
The prizes are a bottle of f*!@#$% SCOTCH and a box of cheap f!@#$#$ CIGARS!

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Re: Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

Postby fanglangzhe » 17 May 2012, 20:54

urodacus wrote:Yet the status quo, fragile and eroding as it is, is 95% of the way towards de jure independence, isn't it? So why is the last mile so hard?

because China is a big arrogant and, most importantly, increasingly confident bully.


Yes, that's the reality. You can either live with it or fight it and die a martyr. But who is willing to sacrifice their lives for de jure Taiwan independence?

I see one of 2 scenarios:
1) China collapses and Taiwan declares de jure independence without a fight.
OR
2) China's position in the world becomes even stronger than today, and some sort of permanent political solution with Taiwan is reached that basically means unification.
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Re: Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

Postby urodacus » 17 May 2012, 23:39

So, looks like we're all in total agreement.

Let's agitate for the total collapse of China then... Balkanisation, anyone? Ethnic uprisings? Covert shipments of small arms to the uighurs and lamaseries? Pandas with frikkin lasers on their heads? Or just go for the totally sublime and release a virus that genetically modifies all Chinese first born sons into jelly rolls with a variety of intersting creamy centers.

Oh, wait, that's already been done.
The prizes are a bottle of f*!@#$% SCOTCH and a box of cheap f!@#$#$ CIGARS!

Too many people! Almost all of the world's problems are due to overpopulation. The rest are due to religion.

50% of the world's wild animals have disappeared in the last 50 years. Did you eat them, or eat their house?
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Re: Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

Postby Mucha Man » 18 May 2012, 00:03

China's collapse would be horrendous for hundreds of millions of people. Not a positive scenario on the horizon.

I agree only with a situation that is beneficial to both the people of Taiwan and China. The governments can go to hell.
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Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

Postby headhonchoII » 18 May 2012, 07:20

China is not going to collapse into fiefdoms again, but it could one day undergo a political revolution although my bet is a generally slow and steady change similar to the KMT although I think it is waiting for a leader there to lead change from the front, so far nobody is willing or able to put their balls on the line.

Taiwan declaring independence would just be a perfect excuse for the PLA to take over a fractured China.

Things can only be adequately settled politically and peacefully.
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Re: Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

Postby TaipeiDawg » 18 May 2012, 12:08

fanglangzhe wrote:
urodacus wrote:Yet the status quo, fragile and eroding as it is, is 95% of the way towards de jure independence, isn't it? So why is the last mile so hard? because China is a big arrogant and, most importantly, increasingly confident bully.

Yes, that's the reality. You can either live with it or fight it and die a martyr. But who is willing to sacrifice their lives for de jure Taiwan independence?
I see one of 2 scenarios:
1) China collapses and Taiwan declares de jure independence without a fight.
OR
2) China's position in the world becomes even stronger than today, and some sort of permanent political solution with Taiwan is reached that basically means unification.
Well, call it what you want but "unification" can take many forms. Of course, everybody knows that barring extreme circumstances Taiwan is not going to be an independent country that joins the UN any time soon. So, if negotiations are inevitable and the DPP toned down their position a notch or two from outright independence it would probably have a lot of popular support and be a viable alternative to the KMT's position which is a gray area something like "Taiwan is either a province or an area of China and the issue at hand is deciding how to integrate and share the governance".
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Re: Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

Postby Teddoman » 18 May 2012, 12:22

In the last year, the Europeans have gone to China to raise money, hoping that China would bail them out. (China turned them down.) The verdict is still out on how much saving Europe will need.

The US government debt rating was downgraded due to debt concerns. Without China continuing to be the largest buyer of US government bonds, US debt financing costs might rise.

I don't think the major western powers really believe they can call all the shots in the same way they did even 5 years ago. You can't tell China what to do in one breath, and then go desperately begging them for money in the next.

The status quo in Taiwan looks solid for now, but I also don't see China going anywhere either.
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Re: Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

Postby fanglangzhe » 19 May 2012, 15:53

TaipeiDawg wrote:Well, call it what you want but "unification" can take many forms. Of course, everybody knows that barring extreme circumstances Taiwan is not going to be an independent country that joins the UN any time soon. So, if negotiations are inevitable and the DPP toned down their position a notch or two from outright independence it would probably have a lot of popular support and be a viable alternative to the KMT's position which is a gray area something like "Taiwan is either a province or an area of China and the issue at hand is deciding how to integrate and share the governance".


Agree, but it will take a political genius from the DPP to renounce any aim of de jure independence and offer an alternative different from the KMT. And to do so such that the new votes they gain (from KMT or middle of the road voters) offsets or even exceeds the DPP votes they will lose as a result.
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Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

Postby headhonchoII » 19 May 2012, 18:46

The DPP are dumb, they should build a powerful base across all segments in Taiwan first and bring people with them slowly, they always shoot themselves in the foot by going back to core green supporters.
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Re: Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

Postby TaipeiDawg » 21 May 2012, 12:05

If the DPP was smart enough to do something smart - or at least not dumb, which is unlikely, they could pick up some KMT or swing votes. However, I don't know how many votes they would actually lose by giving up the independence platform. Maybe some would move to the TSU or a new extreme splinter party would form. But they would still likely support the DPP in general elections.
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