Most Foreigners are anti-KMT?

[Dog's_Breakfast]

Well, Nixon started the ball rollong with his historic visit in 1972 but it was only during the Carter administration in 1979 that the PRC was officially recognised.

Yes but in terms of cajones, I always thought Nixon got credit for it. I vaguely remember something from a book saying that only a Republican could get away with Sino-US rapproachment, much like only a Southern Democrat could get away with the first Civil Rights Act. I'm sure it took a while to formalize (plus obviously Nixon's term ended prematurely) but I thought the credit goes to Nixon/Kissenger.

The Taiwanese have had to watch pretty much every US president from Nixon onwards change their initially "tough on communism" stance and start kowtowing to Beijing. They were shocked and angry by Nixon's trip to China, but they REALLY vilified Carter for "selling out the ROC." (They always called it the "ROC" or "Free China" back then, at least when referring to themselves as a political entity). The KMT enthusiastically endorsed Ronald Reagan in 1980, largely thanks to his tough anti-China election rhetoric, but then watched in horror as Reagan went to China and praised it as a "so-called communist country" after visiting a street market in Beijing. Reagan also began the policy of restricting weapon sales to Taiwan, and humiliated the Taiwanese very publicly after they were caught secretly trying to make an atomic bomb (which the CIA detected thanks to spy working inside Taiwan's nuclear power industry).

The Tiananmen Square massacre happened when George Bush Sr was president. As a former ambassador to China, Bush Sr seemed to have a soft spot for the Chinese Communist Party and did everything in his power to prevent any US trade sanctions. He was quite an apologist for Beijing during that time.

Then there was Bill Clinton, who very publicly claimed that he would revoke China's "most favored nation's" status unless they improved their human rights record. A deadline was set, and the Chinese government actually went out of its way to publicly increase repression to rub Clinton's face in the dirt. The deadline came and Clinton capitulated, making some lame excuse about how things were actually improving behind the scenes and China was only arresting, murdering and torturing to "save face." Ironically, it was mostly Democrats who vilified Clinton for capitulating. Clinton bent over backwards to get China into the WTO ahead of Taiwan.

Then George Bush Jr came along. There was that incident early in his first term with a spy plane landing on Hainan Island and the American crew captured. After vowing that the USA would never discontinue its spy flights near the Chinese coast, the flights were quietly discontinued as the price of getting the crew returned. No blip in trade relations either. Bush had promised to cut Clinton's trade deficit with China, but it mushroomed. In fact, he tossed out the remaining quotas on imports of Chinese-made garments and other goods.

Obama - well, a little (but not much) tough talk about human rights, followed by the usual kowtowing to Beijing. I don't think that Taiwan can expect anything much from him.

If Romney gets elected, I'm sure he'll bend over and spread just as his predecessors have. The fact is that corporate lobbyists for companies that profit from Chinese slave labor are the ones who call the shots on US China policy.

So my conclusion - the USA will never go to war with China again, at least not on Taiwan's behalf. The Taiwanese independence folks who think that the USA is their "great protector" are living in the past. Things have changed since the days of the Korean War.

[Teddoman]

That was a great summary of recent US-Taiwan history D_B, and now that I know enough to talk about it, you've made me dangerous

No it looks like your read on US-China relations is pretty accurate, but I disagree with your conclusion about Taiwan, because I think most expats in Taiwan are looking at it purely through the prism of China vs Taiwan. Whereas, if you look at it from the US point of view, the US is probably just trying to support global stability while having as many allies as it can. Right now, the US has its Pacific flank buffered by Taiwan, Japan and other allies in the region. Military planners have to plan for the worst case situations, even though they don't look likely or desirable today. But if China invaded Taiwan or Japan, you can bet some serious shite is going down in the world, and it's not just going to end with Taiwan or Japan. So I think the American security envelope in Asia is intended to deter any threat to the *status quo*. Because in the eyes of the US, the status quo is good. It doesn't want Taiwan independence, which would set off Chinese nationalism, but it also doesn't want Taiwan conquered either, which would destabilize the region, most notably by making the Japanese insecure about the American security envelope.

If the Chinese had a half decent military strategist, they would realize the American security envelope benefits them tremendously by keeping their primary military rival (Japan) demilitarized. If the American security envelope appeared impotent in the face of a Taiwan invasion, Japan would realize it was the next domino and right wing nationalism would eventually cause remilitarization and investment in a huge weapons programs. Instead of the Americans, China would now have to deal with Japan, which is right on their doorstep.

[urodacus]

Then George Bush Jr came along. There was that incident early in his first term with a spy plane landing on Hainan Island and the American crew captured. After vowing that the USA would never discontinue its spy flights near the Chinese coast, the flights were quietly discontinued as the price of getting the crew returned. No blip in trade relations either. Bush had promised to cut Clinton's trade deficit with China, but it mushroomed. In fact, he tossed out the remaining quotas on imports of Chinese-made garments and other goods.

Well, I can see at least 20 EP-3 fights a day take off from near my house, so they must be going somewhere. Discontinued, you say?

[bohica]

Because in the eyes of the US, the status quo is good. It doesn't want Taiwan independence, which would set off Chinese nationalism, but it also doesn't want Taiwan conquered either, which would destabilize the region, most notably by making the Japanese insecure about the American security envelope.

Exactly, which is why if Taiwan is to provoke the conflict itself by declaring independence, not only will the US not ride to the rescue, they may be the one delivering the smack down to Taiwan.

[Dog's_Breakfast]

Well, I can see at least 20 EP-3 fights a day take off from near my house, so they must be going somewhere. Discontinued, you say?

Can I assume you live in Taiwan? Then those aircraft must belong to the Taiwanese air force or coast guard. The USA does not have any military crews or aircraft based in Taiwan. That is by agreement. China makes this a condition of having diplomatic relations with them. China made a big stink some 20-odd years ago when a single US fighter jet landed in Taiwan just for an emergency fuel stop.

For the Typhoon Morakot disaster relief helicopter flights by the US military, China gave the green light to that. I assume they did that only to help burnish Ma Yin-jeou's image. Didn't seem to help though, as the DPP and their mouthpiece the Taipei Times whined incessantly that Morakot was Ma's fault anyway. If Chen Shuibian had been president, that typhoon would never have dared strike Taiwan.

The only non-Taiwanese military equipment you might see in Taiwan is if one of the 20-odd diplomatic allies sends an aircraft or ship here for a ceremony. I feel safe saying that the Nicaraguan or Palau air force isn't viewed as a major threat by China.

[Teddoman]

Because in the eyes of the US, the status quo is good. It doesn't want Taiwan independence, which would set off Chinese nationalism, but it also doesn't want Taiwan conquered either, which would destabilize the region, most notably by making the Japanese insecure about the American security envelope.

Exactly, which is why if Taiwan is to provoke the conflict itself by declaring independence, not only will the US not ride to the rescue, they may be the one delivering the smack down to Taiwan.

We must wonder how such a smack down might actually be delivered, though.

Carpet bomb all the betel nut plantations on the island? Embargo all hello kitty products from the island? Replace all bland variety shows on TV with professional broadcast news journalism?

No, seriously, I'm not sure what the US could or would do in that instance. China would probably make all kinds of belligerent demands. The US would hold high level negotiations between China and Taiwan. But since the US holds all the cards, I guess Taiwan would have to do whatever the US tells them to do.

Well, I can see at least 20 EP-3 fights a day take off from near my house, so they must be going somewhere. Discontinued, you say?

That's awesome. How do you know they're EP-3s?

And how cheap could the rent possibly be to make it worth living next to a military installation?

[headhonchoII]

I believe he is based in Okinawa , which would account for the EP-3s right enough.

[urodacus]

That's awesome. How do you know they're EP-3s?

Um. Just a hunch I have.

Plus the fact that that's a pretty distinctive airframe.

[Teddoman]

That's awesome. How do you know they're EP-3s?

Um. Just a hunch I have.

Oh I get it, you would only be at liberty to discuss your hunch on a need to know basis, and I don't need to know

[TaipeiDawg]

If Taiwan were to declare independence, I don't think that China's response would be immediate full-scale military invasion. I'd expect a well thought-out strategy of intimidation which would undermine Taiwan's will. Very easy to do, in my opinion, since the average Taiwanese is not ready to tolerate hardships.

How to do it exactly? First, torpedo or missile attack on a couple of Taiwanese-flagged container ships at the mouth of Kaohsiung and Keelung (Jilong) (Jilong) harbors. Publicly announce that in the future, all container ships trying to enter the harbors will be destroyed. Foreign carriers will not take the risk, and will pull all their ships out. Taiwan's export-oriented economy plummets. With no oil and coal flowing into Taiwan, the electric power plants (other than nuclear ones) have to shut down, plunging most of the island into darkness. (Note to you anti-nuke folks, I told you so). This shuts down most of the manufacturing, railways and highway transport. Now, just sit back and wait while panicked wealthy Taiwanese and foreign English teachers (like most of the Taiwan independence advocates here on Forumosa) panic to get out of Taiwan with all their money. Foreigners may get to jump the queue on the Taiwanese because some foreign governments will provide "evacuation flights" only for their citizens. I know for a fact that AIT has a plan in place to do this should the need arise (I know the local guy here who is in charge of this).

China may speed things up by, every few days, lobbing a missile someplace into a city, even without an explosive warhead. Just do it for the psychological effect. Hit Taipei 101, for instance, without blowing up the building, but announce publicly that if Taiwan doesn't surrender soon, they are going to arm the missiles with explosives or maybe chemical weapons. Panic ensues. Food grows scarce due to hoarding and lack of imports. The streets are no longer safe.

Will the USA come riding to the rescue, as the Taiwanese expect? I doubt it very much. For all the bluster, the USA won't risk the enormous economic consequences of having China cut off all exports to the USA. What is more important to US politicians, freedom for Taiwan or profits for Wal-Mart? I rest my case.

Agreed, if China resorted to force Taiwan would submit faster than a Tai Chi master in the UFC.
However, the scenario where China is actually firing missiles and torpedoes into cities and ships is extremely far-fetched. Can you imagine what the international ramifications would be if China actually did something like that? It would plunge the global economy into chaos and end up hurting China much more than it would Taiwan. China's economic growth and social stability is much more fragile than you apparently think. If the gov't let's the good times come crashing down - even temporarily - over such an ideological issue they will not remain unscathed.

I could see China doing some kind of cyber attack or maybe naval patrols/blockade, or even lobbing a symbolic missile off into the ocean somewhere but even that would tarnish their image badly and rattle their economy. Belligerent as they can be they would still only resort to brute force as a last resort. With the assistance of the KMT they are already winning the 'struggle' against Taiwan independence so the need for drastic actions is becoming more and more unlikely. So, with all likelihood all the English teachers that you constantly rail against can continue to stay here, make money, drink beer, get babes, not vote, and claim that Taiwan is independent.