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The undermining Pan Blue polls

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Threads dealing with Taiwan's history belong in the Culture & History thread. Please do not post articles - use links instead. Quoted sources should be limited to one paragraph in length, or less. If you see a post that you feel is against the rules, you can send a report to the moderators so we can look into it

Re: The undermining Pan Blue polls

Postby Betelnut » 14 Jan 2012, 13:02

Because they always like to claim that their poll is the real poll and that the other so-called pan blue polls are biased. I posted the details of one poll to see if it turns out to be accurate, so why can't we see other polls before the results come out? There was a long debate over the accuracy of polls in another thread so I started this one.

sandman wrote:
Betelnut wrote:Can someone post the Taiwan Democracy Foundation Poll as of last night, so that we can make some academic comparisons?

Why? The results will be out in just a few hours. Why are you so interested in the vapid wankings of a bunch of know-nothings? There is NOTHING "academic" about it. Its nothing but biased partisan pontificating.
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Re: The undermining Pan Blue polls

Postby Betelnut » 14 Jan 2012, 23:50

The poll info that I received turned out to be correct in a way and not so correct in another way.

It did predict fairly accurately what the DPP support rate would be which was 45.6% or 46%. However, Soong only got 2.8% of the vote which was 2% less than expected, and Ma got about 2.5% more than expected. Anyway, at least I hope that most of you will not view polls as trying to undermine the DPP. The poll on the last day gave the DPP a better chance than the actual ballots indicated, so it was certainly not undermining the DPP.
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Re: The undermining Pan Blue polls

Postby Betelnut » 15 Jan 2012, 23:38

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2012/01/15/2003523272/1

The publicized DPP poll is noted here in the Taipei Times article which I assume is the same as the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy fund. They claim it predicted Tsai would win by 100,000 ballots and I posted here before the results came out that another poll said Ma would win by 340,00 ballots, but still predicted fairly accurately that Tsai would get around 46% (45.6%).

If the actual result was around 800,000 ballots in favor of Ma, then the poll I posted was closer to the result than the DPP poll or the Taiwan Foundation Democracy poll that always says the election is close even if it isn't. This time around, the election was close, but my point is that the so-called pan blue polls are not trying to undermine the DPP by saying the KMT will win by more than it actually is. In this case it predicted a smaller victory for Ma than the actual result.

So I hope that people will not make generalizations about so-called pan blue polls as being notoriously biased and trying to undermine the poor DPP party that does not have as many resources to manipulate the media, etc.
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Re: The undermining Pan Blue polls

Postby Betelnut » 18 Jan 2012, 15:08

Another important point that should be made about the presidential elections since 1996, is that the voting rate in elections where there are no allegations of fraud on either side are between 74-76%. In 2000 and 2004, the voting rate was 82% and 80% respectively. In 1996, the voting rate was 76%. In 2008, the voting rate was 76%, and in this year in 2012, it was 74%.

In 2000, research showed that several voting stations in the Kaohsiung County had voting stations with 100% voting rates. That is no leftover ballots that were not used in them. Cases like this would explain the abnormally high voting rate in 2000.

In 2004, when the voter lists were finally checked in May just before the inauguration, there were many fake voters found in the voting lists that had voted, or people who were in jail or dead already because the voter lists had been examined before the election and were pre-stamped or stamped during the election day. This is why the voting rate was also abnormally high in 2004.

If we look at '96, '08, and '12, the voting rate is between 74-76% and it will probably stay around there and probably not reach 80% that easily again.

So there are many indications that the '00 and '04 elections were rigged and should be taken into account before making conclusions to how the public generally votes. Till now, the green camp has never gotten over half the ballots in a legislative election but yet mysteriously was able to do so in '04 amid allegations of fraud witnessed by the public, election staff, and in the voter lists. If you combine results for the municipal elections, and look at the legislative election results each year, it's clear the green camp (DPP + TSU) starting from the year 2001 does not have more than about 46% of the vote and is only able to do pull over the 50% mark when the DPP is already in power and can control the CEC and other government agencies to a degree to see that it stays in power.
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