Countdown to the 2012 Presidential Election

[Fox]

I disagree with you both. The DPP fielded Tsai this election and did no better than they would have had Su run. Taiwan politics is driven by partisanship. It has nothing to do with platforms or the background of candidates. Swings voters are a fraction and will not play an important roll for another decade at the least.

Swinging voters play the most important role in any election. In the last election the DPP gained 13 seats while the KMT lost 17. All of those seats must have been won and lost at the margins because between pan blue and the pan green camps there was very little change in how the vote was split between 2008 and 2012 only a very small % increase to the pan-greens (less than 1%). Therefore, it was the very small percentage of swinging voters in marginal seats that saw large percentage changes in the number of seats held by either of the main parties. The biggest winner in voting overall was Lee Tung Hui's Taiwan Solidarity Party. As a percentage of the overall vote it went from about 3% to about 9%. Being prepared to change your vote is where real people power comes from. So it doesn't matter what the overall partisan break down is, what matters is the positions adopted at the margin. It wouldn't, therefore, be unrealistic or unreasonable to see the DPP claw back even more seats by the next election on the 'governments don't win but lose elections' principle and then be within shouting distance of winning government again.

[Mucha Man]

fox, I am not disputing that there are swing voters, nor that they don't play a roll in elections. I just have not seen anyone argue convincing that there are enough swing voters to tips the election in the DPP's favor over the short term (meaning the next ten years or so).

The DPP base is simply too small to win an election unless blue voters stay home en masse.

There's only one time the DPP won the presidency and that is 2004 when Chen was the incumbent, there was a shooting, and Taiwanese were still willing to give the greens a chance at running. The latter point is often forgotten. There probably were more swing voters in 2004 than now but most voters have hardened again in partisan positions. So the 50% that Chen got will likely not be repeated for a very long time. Those who might be willing to change votes in 2004 now feel "been there, done that, and didn't like the results."

Just consider how angry the average light blue voter was with Ma over Morakot, over China policy, over a myriad of issues. I would regular hear people say "I can't believe I voted for that guy." In the end, Ma lost a few votes, but still won comfortably. Had Soong not run I believe he would have won more handily.

[Okami]

Don't forget how much money the KMT are willing to rain down on swing counties. Zhanghua was awash in cash and activities more than likely because it is such an important swing county. The flower festival in Taipei, the national games, the lantern festival in Lukang and the normal public works were all out on display to show which party brings home the bacon.