Mucha Man wrote:I disagree with you both. The DPP fielded Tsai this election and did no better than they would have had Su run. Taiwan politics is driven by partisanship. It has nothing to do with platforms or the background of candidates. Swings voters are a fraction and will not play an important roll for another decade at the least.
Swinging voters play the most important role in any election. In the last election the DPP gained 13 seats while the KMT lost 17. All of those seats must have been won and lost at the margins because between pan blue and the pan green camps there was very little change in how the vote was split between 2008 and 2012 only a very small % increase to the pan-greens (less than 1%). Therefore, it was the very small percentage of swinging voters in marginal seats that saw large percentage changes in the number of seats held by either of the main parties. The biggest winner in voting overall was Lee Tung Hui's Taiwan Solidarity Party. As a percentage of the overall vote it went from about 3% to about 9%. Being prepared to change your vote is where real people power comes from. So it doesn't matter what the overall partisan break down is, what matters is the positions adopted at the margin. It wouldn't, therefore, be unrealistic or unreasonable to see the DPP claw back even more seats by the next election on the 'governments don't win but lose elections' principle and then be within shouting distance of winning government again.