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2012 election poll. Head and heart: who will win?

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Who would you like to win the 2012 presidential election? Who do you actually think will win?

Poll ended at 14 Jan 2012, 17:06

Prefer Ma, and I think he'll win
12
19%
Prefer Ma, but it's too close to call
4
6%
Prefer Ma, but I think Tsai will win
0
No votes
Prefer Soong, but I think Ma will win
1
2%
Prefer Soong, but I think Tsai will win
0
No votes
Prefer Soong, but it's too close to call
1
2%
Prefer Tsai, and I think she'll win
4
6%
Prefer Tsai, but it's too close to call
12
19%
Prefer Tsai, but I think Ma will win
17
27%
I have no preference, but I think Ma will win
10
16%
I have no preference, but I think Tsai will win
1
2%
I have no preference, and I think it's too close to call
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 62

Re: 2012 election poll. Head and heart: who will win?

Postby FurTrader » 11 Jan 2012, 04:52

Szu wrote:
Latest i heard from from the polling guys is that Tsai is leading slightly in internal polling. That said, the polling people have some problems with their methodology..so its really hard to guess who will come out ahead. That said, it is quite true that a big factor in the results will be the turnout. In 2010, because of the rain etc it was predicted that the blues will not come out..and then someone got shot. (So everyone blamed that for the narrow loss)

That said, the DPP factions have somewhat united behind Tsai and it showed in the campaign thus far...so turn-out on polling day should be good if everything goes to plan. That said, a lot of things can happen from now till polling day but I think for the past few years it has been that there's always a 'surge' at the end for someone. Which is good for Tsai..

Disclaimer : I'm somewhat DPP so I'm biased..



There should be a poll to find out if people answered truthfully in polls. :)
After that, another poll to find out how many people answered the above
question truthfully..... :D
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Re: 2012 election poll. Head and heart: who will win?

Postby ChewDawg » 11 Jan 2012, 10:01

I find that the foreign commentators are also often full of shit when making predictions. IT just ain't the media stations here. I remember on Turton's blog in 2008 that he actually thought Hsieh was going to win till the very end, saying he didn't want to let his family feel less than optimistic.

While I can understand that rationale on an emotional level, I think it weakens those types of blogs in terms of trusting their analysis. When you're commentating on the political scene in Taiwan, call it as it is, not how you'd like it to be. You can still be partisan without losing credibility, but when you still believe politicians with no chance in hell of winning (e.g., Hsieh in 2008) are going to win, people that value objective analysis will call out the "bullshit." Instead though, a lot of people think it's sage analysis. :lol:
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Re: 2012 election poll. Head and heart: who will win?

Postby Feiren » 11 Jan 2012, 10:03

Betelnut wrote:Haha, yes that is true, but last I heard Ma was up by around 4-6% which means that the ruling party does not need to "shift" the vote. I'm not saying they wouldn't if needed, but I am saying that barring someone getting shot on the green side (for real), there probably won't be any need to "shift" votes. Chen did a good job of shifting 1.5 million ballots in just over 24 hours with a stunt in Tainan and pre-planned vote shifting the next day. If he can do it, then certainly a smaller margin would be even easier and they wouldn't even need a shooting incident to make it believable.

Mick wrote:
Cueball wrote:To the people who voted "prefer Tsai, think Ma will win" - are you really sure that Ma will win?


Yes, in reality it is too close to call, but an incumbent president will shift the vote a few percent and the KMT seem keen to keep the ball in their park.

This kind of thinking is what causes the Blues to riot each time they lose. It's well understood that DPP voters are consistently undercounted in polls. So a lead of 4-6% is not safe at all for Ma. Ma doesn't need to "shift votes" but he does need to make sure that at least some of the swing voters vote for him again. I think he'll succeed and win, but Tsai is within striking distance if the polls before the election were accurate.
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Re: 2012 election poll. Head and heart: who will win?

Postby Chris » 11 Jan 2012, 10:34

Just stage a fake assassination attempt to gain sympathy votes. Seemed to work before.

(I'll never understand sympathy voting.)
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Re: 2012 election poll. Head and heart: who will win?

Postby headhonchoII » 11 Jan 2012, 14:18

Satellite TV wrote:
Icon wrote:I think a Ma win is a given. I do not see that much support for Tsai, even though people may dislike Ma and/or his policies, there are economic reaosns why he's a shoo-in.


Where were you yesterday then. On Zhongxiao East Road the KMT had all their stalwart supports out, and they all looked to be over 50 none in there 20, 30s 40's

Whereas on Linsen Road the street was lined with young people uner 50 out stumping for Tsai. Big swell of people from 20 - 50 in there.

The KMT parade looked like they dragged people out of their retirement homes.


Most old people have hukou and are KMT supporters in Taipei, a lot are civil service workers or civil service or military retirees. They will always support the KMT. Many of the younger people in Taipei don't have their hukou there or they may reside in New Taipei City or Taoyuan. It seems a lot of younger people don't vote, yes.
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Re: 2012 election poll. Head and heart: who will win?

Postby headhonchoII » 11 Jan 2012, 14:19

ChewDawg wrote:I find that the foreign commentators are also often full of shit when making predictions. IT just ain't the media stations here. I remember on Turton's blog in 2008 that he actually thought Hsieh was going to win till the very end, saying he didn't want to let his family feel less than optimistic.

While I can understand that rationale on an emotional level, I think it weakens those types of blogs in terms of trusting their analysis. When you're commentating on the political scene in Taiwan, call it as it is, not how you'd like it to be. You can still be partisan without losing credibility, but when you still believe politicians with no chance in hell of winning (e.g., Hsieh in 2008) are going to win, people that value objective analysis will call out the "bullshit." Instead though, a lot of people think it's sage analysis. :lol:


When somebody has an obvious green or blue bias it's never sage analysis. One factor not discussed much is probably the fear of a split government, the 8 years of the DPP administration were constant chaos because of this. And whatever one may feel about KMT it would be nice to get some further stability in Taiwan so things can get done.
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And I can still hear my old hound dog barkin' chasin' down a hoodoo there
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Re: 2012 election poll. Head and heart: who will win?

Postby ChewDawg » 11 Jan 2012, 14:21

What cheese dick generalizations. I especially dislike the last one. Tsai is what Taiwanese are? WTF? You mean they're all spoiled daughters of rich businesspeople that did their PhD overseas and lived the convenient life of a bohemian until democratization? :lol:

Like her class background is any different than Ma's! They are both sons and daughters of privilege--let's not bullshit about it. I'm fine with that. But trying to make her something she's not--like she was born in a log cabin or that she truly is grassroots--is just cheesy in the extreme. She's the favorite of the Taipei salons! :lol:

Taiwanese culture with varied characteristics? Bollocks. Hoklo chauvinism, even if the party is led by a female, will always put local Han over 20th Century Mainland Han immigrant, with all others (including Hakka, aborigine, caucasian etc) a far distant third :lol:

The Difference Between Ma and Tsai

Ma: It's about cross-strait stability. 馬:這是關於兩岸的穩定。
Tsai: It's about the economy. 蔡:這是經濟問題。
Ma: It's about Chen Shui-bian's corruption. 馬:這是陳水扁的貪腐問題。
Tsai: It's about KMT incompetence and indifference. 蔡:這是國民黨的無能與冷漠。
Ma: It's about the 1992 Consensus that I claim exists. 馬:這是關於我所宣稱存在的九二共識。
Tsai: It's about the Taiwan Consensus that does exist. 蔡:這是關於確實存在的台灣共識。
Ma: It's about growing big business. 馬:這是關於要培養大企業。
Tsai: It's about growing a diverse and sustainable economy. 蔡:這是關於要培養多元且永續的經濟。
Ma: It's about 'Going to the world through China'. 馬:這是關於"透過中國走向世界"。
Tsai: It's about 'Going to China through the world'. 蔡:這是關於"透過世界走向中國"
Ma: It's about the survival of the ROC. 馬:這是關於中華民國的生存。
Tsai: It's about the survival of Taiwan. 蔡:這是關於台灣的生存。
Ma: It's about my stewardship. 馬:這關乎我的管理。
Tsai: It's about my leadership. 蔡:這關乎我的領導。
Ma: It's about a peace deal. 馬:這關乎一個和平交易。
Tsai: It's about a good deal. 蔡:這關乎一個好的交易。
Ma: It's about sincerity. 馬:這關乎誠意。
Tsai: It's about trust. 蔡:這關乎信任。
Ma: It's about Chinese culture with Taiwanese characteristics. 馬:這關乎具有台灣特色的中國文化。
Tsai: It's about Taiwanese culture and its varied characteristics. 蔡:這關乎台灣文化以及她的多元特色。
Ma: It's about your fears. 馬:這關乎你的恐懼。
Tsai: It's about your hopes. 蔡:這關乎你的希望。
Ma: I am good for you. 馬:我是為你著想。
Tsai: I am you. 蔡:我就是你。


http://lettersfromtaiwan.tumblr.com/
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Re: 2012 election poll. Head and heart: who will win?

Postby FurTrader » 11 Jan 2012, 14:33

ChewDawg wrote: She's the favorite of the Taipei salons! :lol:


??? what salons are we talking about? she sure doesn't look it.... :2cents:
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Re: 2012 election poll. Head and heart: who will win?

Postby ChewDawg » 11 Jan 2012, 14:36

FurTrader wrote:
ChewDawg wrote: She's the favorite of the Taipei salons! :lol:


??? what salons are we talking about? she sure doesn't look it.... :2cents:


I mean chattering salons! :lol:
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Re: 2012 election poll. Head and heart: who will win?

Postby BigJohn » 11 Jan 2012, 14:38

ChewDawg wrote:
Taiwanese culture with varied characteristics? Bollocks. Hoklo chauvinism, even if the party is led by a female, will always put local Han over 20th Century Mainland Han immigrant, with all others (including Hakka, aborigine, caucasian etc) a far distant third :lol:


Is it really chauvinism though? It's nothing like Jean Marie Le Pen or similar parties. I mean, is there something wrong with having a party in Taiwan firmly rooted in the Hoklo identity? Personally, if it is respectful of others, I don't see why that is chauvinism.
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