DPP or KMT: Different outcomes re: unification with PRC?

Topics related to Taiwan and Taiwan/China issues can be discussed here. Threads dealing with Taiwan's history belong in the Culture & History thread. Please do not post articles - use links instead. Quoted sources should be limited to one paragraph in length, or less. If you see a post that you feel is against the rules, please send a report to the moderators so we can look into it

Moderator: TheGingerMan

Forum rules
Threads dealing with Taiwan's history belong in the Culture & History thread. Please do not post articles - use links instead. Quoted sources should be limited to one paragraph in length, or less. If you see a post that you feel is against the rules, you can send a report to the moderators so we can look into it

DPP or KMT: Different outcomes re: unification with PRC?

Postby GuyInTaiwan » 17 Jan 2012, 08:38

If there were a referendum on Taiwan becoming part of China, what numbers would be required? I was always under the impression that referenda around the world were generally a 2/3 thing. Is it 50% here? Because if 2/3 is required and the DPP crowd have a permanent 46%, give or take, it's a non-starter.
And you coming in to scold us all like some kind of sour-puss kindie assistant who favors olive cardigans and lemon drinks without sugar. -- Muzha Man

One sometimes gets the impression that the mere words "Socialism" and "Communism" draw towards them with magnetic force every fruit-juice drinker, nudist, sandal-wearer, sex-maniac, Quaker, "Nature Cure" quack, pacifist, and feminist in England. -- George Orwell
GuyInTaiwan
Entering Second Childhood (èrdù tóngnián qī)
Entering Second Childhood (èrdù tóngnián qī)
 
Posts: 7231
ORIGINAL POSTER
Joined: 10 Jun 2008, 23:01
341 Recommends(s)
271 Recognized(s)

6000

Re: Countdown to the 2012 Presidential Election

Postby cfimages » 17 Jan 2012, 09:37

GuyInTaiwan wrote:If there were a referendum on Taiwan becoming part of China, what numbers would be required? I was always under the impression that referenda around the world were generally a 2/3 thing. Is it 50% here? Because if 2/3 is required and the DPP crowd have a permanent 46%, give or take, it's a non-starter.


I'm pretty sure it's 2/3 here as well, plus there needs to be something like 60% of registered voters actually participating for it to be valid. Which is why I can never understand all the people saying Ma is going to unify Taiwan with China. Short of a war, it can't happen.
Forumosan avatar
cfimages
Golden Lotus (huángjīn liánhuā)
Golden Lotus (huángjīn liánhuā)
 
Posts: 8710
Joined: 30 Oct 2005, 15:39
Location: Across from the other side of the road
184 Recommends(s)
187 Recognized(s)

6000

Re: Countdown to the 2012 Presidential Election

Postby TainanCowboy » 17 Jan 2012, 09:56

cfimages wrote:
GuyInTaiwan wrote:If there were a referendum on Taiwan becoming part of China, what numbers would be required? I was always under the impression that referenda around the world were generally a 2/3 thing. Is it 50% here? Because if 2/3 is required and the DPP crowd have a permanent 46%, give or take, it's a non-starter.

I'm pretty sure it's 2/3 here as well, plus there needs to be something like 60% of registered voters actually participating for it to be valid. Which is why I can never understand all the people saying Ma is going to unify Taiwan with China. Short of a war, it can't happen.

I was discussing something very similar with a local just this past week-end.

If a island-wide survey was conducted on "identity", how would the majority of the respondents identify themselves?

Chinese or Taiwanese?

I think it would be an interesting demographic starting point. I would like to see something like this with a break-down of various categories of the respondents:
age
gender
birth location
current residence location
educational status
parental heritage
language most commonly spoken (Chinese-Taiwanese-other, specify)

With a survey group as large as possible this would be a very good info source item.

I think the recent - "MADE IN TAIWAN" label is a good start on establishing a national/Taiwan identity.
"Pardon him, Theodotus; he is a barbarian and thinks that the customs of his tribe and island are the laws of nature" --- "Caesar and Cleopatra"...G.B. Shaw
-----
Kid Rock - Born Free
-----
"The big sisters are usually hot, but the dads smell of alcohol and tobacco....and have dirty feet with dead toe nails in blue slippers. "...Bob_Honest on "The Culture"
------
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes
------
Isaiah 40:31
Forumosan avatar
TainanCowboy
Guan Yin (Guānyīn)
 
Posts: 16234
Joined: 18 Jun 2004, 17:50
Location: Tainan - The Original Taiwan
103 Recommends(s)
49 Recognized(s)

6000

Re: Countdown to the 2012 Presidential Election

Postby Mucha Man » 17 Jan 2012, 11:21

cfimages wrote:
GuyInTaiwan wrote:If there were a referendum on Taiwan becoming part of China, what numbers would be required? I was always under the impression that referenda around the world were generally a 2/3 thing. Is it 50% here? Because if 2/3 is required and the DPP crowd have a permanent 46%, give or take, it's a non-starter.


I'm pretty sure it's 2/3 here as well, plus there needs to be something like 60% of registered voters actually participating for it to be valid. Which is why I can never understand all the people saying Ma is going to unify Taiwan with China. Short of a war, it can't happen.


I certainly don't think it is going to happen within Ma's term. And I also didn't say it would be a direct unification. More like a slow steady erosion of sovereignty here but not enough to get the public rioting. Taiwan's military is weakening, support from the US is weakening, the public's appetite for resistance is weakening, but the business community and China are laser-focused on getting what they want. Seriously, what kind of outcome do you expect from this?

But again, I am talking about over the next 20 years not in the next term. Unless of course China collapses or reforms. Then all bets are off.

Tainan Cowboy, the survey you want has been done. It's done every year. Check out Commonwealth or National Chengchi University surveys.

Most show 70-80% identify themselves as Taiwanese. But as I am sadly beginning to accept, this does't mean that much in reality as people think they can make a grand bargain with China and have their tea and drink it too.
“Everywhere else in the world is also really old” said Prof. Liu, a renowned historian at Beijing University. “We always learn that China has 5000 years of cultural heritage, and that therefore we are very special. It appears that other places also have some of this heritage stuff. And are also old. Like, really old.”

http://hikingintaiwan.blogspot.com/
Forumosan avatar
Mucha Man
Guan Yin (Guānyīn)
 
Posts: 18230
Joined: 01 Nov 2001, 17:01
Location: Mucha, of course
716 Recognized(s)

6000

Re: Countdown to the 2012 Presidential Election

Postby cfimages » 17 Jan 2012, 11:26

Muzha Man wrote:
cfimages wrote:
GuyInTaiwan wrote:If there were a referendum on Taiwan becoming part of China, what numbers would be required? I was always under the impression that referenda around the world were generally a 2/3 thing. Is it 50% here? Because if 2/3 is required and the DPP crowd have a permanent 46%, give or take, it's a non-starter.


I'm pretty sure it's 2/3 here as well, plus there needs to be something like 60% of registered voters actually participating for it to be valid. Which is why I can never understand all the people saying Ma is going to unify Taiwan with China. Short of a war, it can't happen.


I certainly don't think it is going to happen within Ma's term. And I also didn't say it would be a direct unification. More like a slow steady erosion of sovereignty here but not enough to get the public rioting. But again, I am talking about over the next 20 years not in the next term. Unless of course China collapses or reforms. Then all bets are off.


I was referring more to those who say that annexation is unavoidable and Ma will sign sovereignty over sometime before 2016. There seems to be a surprising number of people who believe that.
Forumosan avatar
cfimages
Golden Lotus (huángjīn liánhuā)
Golden Lotus (huángjīn liánhuā)
 
Posts: 8710
Joined: 30 Oct 2005, 15:39
Location: Across from the other side of the road
184 Recommends(s)
187 Recognized(s)

6000

Countdown to the 2012 Presidential Election

Postby headhonchoII » 17 Jan 2012, 14:34

There's a lot of hyperbole in this thread. It would take a swing of 5% or less of voters to DPP to get them into presidential power, the legislature is a somewhat bigger ask.
The KMT cannot move too close to China without losing power, also not everybody in the KMT wants that either. Surveys of Taiwanese across the board consistently show they prefer the status quo.
I can remember the fourth of July runnin' through the backwood bare.
And I can still hear my old hound dog barkin' chasin' down a hoodoo there
Chasin' down a hoodoo there.
headhonchoII
Maitreya Buddha (Mílèfó)
 
Posts: 12183
Joined: 26 Aug 2002, 10:40
Location: Taipei
1485 Recommends(s)
556 Recognized(s)

6000

Re: Countdown to the 2012 Presidential Election

Postby Mawvellous » 17 Jan 2012, 14:49

headhonchoII wrote:There's a lot of hyperbole in this thread. It would take a swing of 5% or less of voters to DPP to get them into presidential power, the legislature is a somewhat bigger ask.
The KMT cannot move too close to China without losing power, also not everybody in the KMT wants that either. Surveys of Taiwanese across the board consistently show they prefer the status quo.


A lot of people are saying that China will be putting more pressure after giving Ma an easy ride for his first term. The Chinese acceptance of the "92 consensus" was a pretty major concession on their part and shows how worried they are about the Taiwanese independence movement. The danger for them is if they push too hard in the next four years, the DPP will get back into power.

Taiwanese voters are smarter than most people think. They will vote KMT if they think they can gain economically from closer relations with China, but if they feel that national sovereignty is under threat they will switch back to the DPP.
Mawvellous
Gravel Truck Driver (suìshí chē sījī)
Gravel Truck Driver (suìshí chē sījī)
 
Posts: 1395
Joined: 11 Aug 2006, 10:59
2 Recommends(s)
8 Recognized(s)

6000

Countdown to the 2012 Presidential Election

Postby headhonchoII » 17 Jan 2012, 14:58

That's what I think too, Taiwanese in general know they need the DPP or a strong opposition force to be viable to keep some distance from China and at the same time get concessions. The DPP have pulled themselves back into contention now so it's not such a bad result as people have been making out.
I can remember the fourth of July runnin' through the backwood bare.
And I can still hear my old hound dog barkin' chasin' down a hoodoo there
Chasin' down a hoodoo there.
headhonchoII
Maitreya Buddha (Mílèfó)
 
Posts: 12183
Joined: 26 Aug 2002, 10:40
Location: Taipei
1485 Recommends(s)
556 Recognized(s)

6000

Re: Countdown to the 2012 Presidential Election

Postby Charlie Jack » 17 Jan 2012, 15:03

headhonchoII wrote:There's a lot of hyperbole in this thread. It would take a swing of 5% or less of voters to DPP to get them into presidential power, the legislature is a somewhat bigger ask.
The KMT cannot move too close to China without losing power, also not everybody in the KMT wants that either. Surveys of Taiwanese across the board consistently show they prefer the status quo.


The first waterproofs made their appearance. Indeed, one was struck by the number of glossy, rubberized garments to be seen. The reason was that our newspapers had informed us that two hundred years previously, during the great pestilences of southern Europe, the doctors wore oiled clothing as a safeguard against infection. The shops had seized this opportunity of unloading their stock of out-of-fasion waterproofs, which their purchasers fondly hoped would guarantee immunity from germs.
--Albert Camus, The Plague
Charlie Jack
Presidential Advisor (zǒng tǒng gù wèn)
Presidential Advisor (zǒng tǒng gù wèn)
 
Posts: 3256
Joined: 17 Mar 2007, 22:06
Location: Panchiao
1105 Recommends(s)
191 Recognized(s)

6000

Re: Countdown to the 2012 Presidential Election

Postby Fox » 17 Jan 2012, 16:08

The first waterproofs made their appearance. Indeed, one was struck by the number of glossy, rubberized garments to be seen. The reason was that our newspapers had informed us that two hundred years previously, during the great pestilences of southern Europe, the doctors wore oiled clothing as a safeguard against infection. The shops had seized this opportunity of unloading their stock of out-of-fasion waterproofs, which their purchasers fondly hoped would guarantee immunity from germs.


They've been wearing those waterproofs for so long in Taiwan that the out-of-fashions are now back in fashion. The germs are the same.
"When liberty comes with hands dabbled in blood it is hard to shake hands with her." Wilde

"I don't know where the sun beams end and the star light begins. It's all a mystery." Flaming Lips

"a man's position here is not ruled so much by what he can earn as by what he can owe and still remain at large." Letters of a Shanghai Griffin

"It's called the American dream because you have to be asleep to believe it." George Carlin

The American oligarchy spares no pains in promoting the belief that it does not exist, but the success of its disappearing act depends on equally strenuous efforts on the part of an American public anxious to believe in egalitarian fictions and unwilling to see what is hidden in plain sight.
redbubble
http://www.planetediting.com
Forumosan avatar
Fox
Retired President (tuì xiū de zǒng tǒng)
Retired President (tuì xiū de zǒng tǒng)
 
Posts: 5551
Joined: 11 Jun 2002, 16:01
Location: Taipei
56 Recommends(s)
76 Recognized(s)

6000

Next




Return to Taiwan Politics



Who is online

Forumosans browsing this forum: sofun and 2 visitors

If you wait, all that happens is that you get older -- LARRY MCMURTRY, Some Can Whistle