DPP or KMT: Different outcomes re: unification with PRC?

[GuyInTaiwan]

If there were a referendum on Taiwan becoming part of China, what numbers would be required? I was always under the impression that referenda around the world were generally a 2/3 thing. Is it 50% here? Because if 2/3 is required and the DPP crowd have a permanent 46%, give or take, it's a non-starter.

[cfimages]

If there were a referendum on Taiwan becoming part of China, what numbers would be required? I was always under the impression that referenda around the world were generally a 2/3 thing. Is it 50% here? Because if 2/3 is required and the DPP crowd have a permanent 46%, give or take, it's a non-starter.

I'm pretty sure it's 2/3 here as well, plus there needs to be something like 60% of registered voters actually participating for it to be valid. Which is why I can never understand all the people saying Ma is going to unify Taiwan with China. Short of a war, it can't happen.

[TainanCowboy]

If there were a referendum on Taiwan becoming part of China, what numbers would be required? I was always under the impression that referenda around the world were generally a 2/3 thing. Is it 50% here? Because if 2/3 is required and the DPP crowd have a permanent 46%, give or take, it's a non-starter.

I'm pretty sure it's 2/3 here as well, plus there needs to be something like 60% of registered voters actually participating for it to be valid. Which is why I can never understand all the people saying Ma is going to unify Taiwan with China. Short of a war, it can't happen.

I was discussing something very similar with a local just this past week-end.

If a island-wide survey was conducted on "identity", how would the majority of the respondents identify themselves?

Chinese or Taiwanese?

I think it would be an interesting demographic starting point. I would like to see something like this with a break-down of various categories of the respondents:
age
gender
birth location
current residence location
educational status
parental heritage
language most commonly spoken (Chinese-Taiwanese-other, specify)

With a survey group as large as possible this would be a very good info source item.

I think the recent - "MADE IN TAIWAN" label is a good start on establishing a national/Taiwan identity.

[Mucha Man]

If there were a referendum on Taiwan becoming part of China, what numbers would be required? I was always under the impression that referenda around the world were generally a 2/3 thing. Is it 50% here? Because if 2/3 is required and the DPP crowd have a permanent 46%, give or take, it's a non-starter.

I'm pretty sure it's 2/3 here as well, plus there needs to be something like 60% of registered voters actually participating for it to be valid. Which is why I can never understand all the people saying Ma is going to unify Taiwan with China. Short of a war, it can't happen.

I certainly don't think it is going to happen within Ma's term. And I also didn't say it would be a direct unification. More like a slow steady erosion of sovereignty here but not enough to get the public rioting. Taiwan's military is weakening, support from the US is weakening, the public's appetite for resistance is weakening, but the business community and China are laser-focused on getting what they want. Seriously, what kind of outcome do you expect from this?

But again, I am talking about over the next 20 years not in the next term. Unless of course China collapses or reforms. Then all bets are off.

Tainan Cowboy, the survey you want has been done. It's done every year. Check out Commonwealth or National Chengchi University surveys.

Most show 70-80% identify themselves as Taiwanese. But as I am sadly beginning to accept, this does't mean that much in reality as people think they can make a grand bargain with China and have their tea and drink it too.

[cfimages]

If there were a referendum on Taiwan becoming part of China, what numbers would be required? I was always under the impression that referenda around the world were generally a 2/3 thing. Is it 50% here? Because if 2/3 is required and the DPP crowd have a permanent 46%, give or take, it's a non-starter.

I'm pretty sure it's 2/3 here as well, plus there needs to be something like 60% of registered voters actually participating for it to be valid. Which is why I can never understand all the people saying Ma is going to unify Taiwan with China. Short of a war, it can't happen.

I certainly don't think it is going to happen within Ma's term. And I also didn't say it would be a direct unification. More like a slow steady erosion of sovereignty here but not enough to get the public rioting. But again, I am talking about over the next 20 years not in the next term. Unless of course China collapses or reforms. Then all bets are off.

I was referring more to those who say that annexation is unavoidable and Ma will sign sovereignty over sometime before 2016. There seems to be a surprising number of people who believe that.

[headhonchoII]

There's a lot of hyperbole in this thread. It would take a swing of 5% or less of voters to DPP to get them into presidential power, the legislature is a somewhat bigger ask.
The KMT cannot move too close to China without losing power, also not everybody in the KMT wants that either. Surveys of Taiwanese across the board consistently show they prefer the status quo.

[Mawvellous]

There's a lot of hyperbole in this thread. It would take a swing of 5% or less of voters to DPP to get them into presidential power, the legislature is a somewhat bigger ask.
The KMT cannot move too close to China without losing power, also not everybody in the KMT wants that either. Surveys of Taiwanese across the board consistently show they prefer the status quo.

A lot of people are saying that China will be putting more pressure after giving Ma an easy ride for his first term. The Chinese acceptance of the "92 consensus" was a pretty major concession on their part and shows how worried they are about the Taiwanese independence movement. The danger for them is if they push too hard in the next four years, the DPP will get back into power.

Taiwanese voters are smarter than most people think. They will vote KMT if they think they can gain economically from closer relations with China, but if they feel that national sovereignty is under threat they will switch back to the DPP.

[headhonchoII]

That's what I think too, Taiwanese in general know they need the DPP or a strong opposition force to be viable to keep some distance from China and at the same time get concessions. The DPP have pulled themselves back into contention now so it's not such a bad result as people have been making out.

[Charlie Jack]

There's a lot of hyperbole in this thread. It would take a swing of 5% or less of voters to DPP to get them into presidential power, the legislature is a somewhat bigger ask.
The KMT cannot move too close to China without losing power, also not everybody in the KMT wants that either. Surveys of Taiwanese across the board consistently show they prefer the status quo.

The first waterproofs made their appearance. Indeed, one was struck by the number of glossy, rubberized garments to be seen. The reason was that our newspapers had informed us that two hundred years previously, during the great pestilences of southern Europe, the doctors wore oiled clothing as a safeguard against infection. The shops had seized this opportunity of unloading their stock of out-of-fasion waterproofs, which their purchasers fondly hoped would guarantee immunity from germs.

--Albert Camus, The Plague

[Fox]

The first waterproofs made their appearance. Indeed, one was struck by the number of glossy, rubberized garments to be seen. The reason was that our newspapers had informed us that two hundred years previously, during the great pestilences of southern Europe, the doctors wore oiled clothing as a safeguard against infection. The shops had seized this opportunity of unloading their stock of out-of-fasion waterproofs, which their purchasers fondly hoped would guarantee immunity from germs.

They've been wearing those waterproofs for so long in Taiwan that the out-of-fashions are now back in fashion. The germs are the same.