Suspicion of vote rigging in this presidential election

[cyborg_ninja]

I doubt most ABC's would even bother to vote in the first place let alone flying back to vote.

Mawvellous: do you think most students don't have overtime for work or something of the sort? The week before Chinese new year are usually the busiest, as employers get their workers to have OT in order to make more money so their workers can get some very nice red envelopes. Doesn't matter if Ma would've won if the election was on another date, its a matter of principle, you never put voting the week before the LARGEST holiday in the country. You know how inconvenient it is to go back home just to cast a vote during the most stress period of studies are?

[Betelnut]

There are many ways to spot election fraud in a nationwide election and the fact that the KMT ruling party is being accused of putting the election on a date where it was inconvenient for certain voters to vote thus resulting in a 74% voting rate, AND that they are being accused of rigging the vote by adding to their own ballot count to get it to exactly 6.89 million ballots is contradictory. If the KMT cheated by adding to their total, it would make the voting rate higher and not lower.

The voting rate was 76% in 2008, and 74% in 2012 with the KMT losing a great deal of support and the DPP gaining between those 4 years.

Unless, you believe the voting rate was even lower than 74% and the KMT about 6% or more to the total. There's little indication that DPP ballots were subtracted in the election. They were slated to get around 46% and they got 45.6%. If the KMT really lost the election by a whisker, they would be adding quite a bit to their total to win. It's not necessary to cheat by that much. If you're suggesting that they added 6% to the vote, then that means the actual voting rate was 68% which would make it the lowest turnout ever. In 1996, the turnout was 76%. The only 2 elections where the voting rate was higher were 2000 and 2004 (82 and 80% respectively), so the finger is actually being pointed in the other direction in terms of ballots being artificially added.

First of all my background: I am a Taiwanese by natural descent, and my political stance is anti-KMT, anti-China and pro-independence.

You have been discussing various implications of the outcome of this presidential election. Your discussions are worthwhile, as long as the election outcome on which they are based is genuine. However, has it ever occurred to you that this election outcome may not represent the real will of the majority of the Taiwanese citizens, because the statistics may have been fabricated by the KMT government?

This accusation cannot be verified, unless the KMT government agrees to recount the vote. So far, only a mall number of Taiwanese have been discussing suspicious phenomena up to the election day on the Internet. My purpose of informing you of their discussions is to raise your awareness of a possible unfair presidential election in Taiwan, so that the international community may help pressure the KMT government to recount the votes? Since Ma came to power in 2008, the KMT has been regaining its firm control of the juridical system and the media, so actions taken to confront the KMT entail personal risks of the Taiwanese: Taiwan is only a democracy in appearance now.

The following links connect to two threads that discuss possible vote rigging in this presidential election; the language used is trational Chinese. I myself am convinced of their suspicion, given this regime's recent scandal of document forgery against Tsai Ing-Wen in December 2011, and their notorious history of vote rigging and vote buying. The hosting website is a pro-Tsai forum, as it should be noted, but it gathers the Taiwanese opinions that the mainstream pan-blue media would never want the general public to know.

The first thread discusses the possibility of the KMT's vote rigging. On 1/14, Ma got about 6.89 million votes, which are about 51% of the total votes. However, on 1/12, on the Internet someone had already "predicted" (in a "prophetic" way ) the number "689", as a mysterious number of which the high significance would be realised soon after the election ( http://xfuture.org/Forum/Topic/ab2e8df0 ... cded1c199b). This "prediction" of the number "689" is thought to be too accurate to be a coincidence, and with the unfounded "supernatural factor" being ruled out, the most likely hypothesis is that the person who declared it got to know the KMT's plan for vote rigging. The first thread, "The Miraculous Number 689", discusses reasons to support this hypothesis:

http://blackrain.skycity.cc/2012/01/15/ ... 1#comments

The second thread, "'689' needs further investigations", hypothesises how the KMT could have manipulated the election result, using information technologies to alter the real statistics in the computers of the Central Electoral Committee.

http://blackrain.skycity.cc/2012/01/17/11928.html

[Betelnut]

I just watched a SET TV show with green talking heads on it and they were talking about how the DPP party is having trouble covering all of the voting stations to stop fraud. If its an internal DPP issue of having enough staff to be at all voting stations, that's a perfectly normal topic, but 4-8 years ago, green talking heads were always saying on TV that election fraud was not possible anymore in Taiwan and that there are always irregularities in elections and people shouldn't be conspiracy freaks, etc. They also said that polls shouldn't be believed because the DPP was always behind in them when they were in power.

So 4-8 years ago, Taiwan had progressed to a state where election fraud was no longer possible, but now that the KMT is in power then election fraud is suddenly possible again?

When the DPP and Dangwai candidates were cheated out of elections, their supporters got very angry and even violent. There were lawsuits filed. We don't see any of that this time. It's just talk to give their supporters a belief that if they work harder, they will have hope in the future.

I don't see any public reflection as to things the DPP really needs to work on like a more realistic cross strait policy rather than just ignoring the issue. Only former DPP chairman Hsu Hsing-Liang has mentioned anything about that. Instead we are getting talk of fraud in the election.

[Betelnut]

http://www.taiwanelections.org/

Check out this site on free and fair elections in Taiwan. With the DPP is opposition, there is suddenly an issue of whether elections are fair or not in Taiwan when it was not an issue when the DPP was in power. Just sore loser KMT party and their supporters. Where were these movements from 2000-2008? Taiwan was supposedly in a golden age of democracy and now it has regressed? Why? Because the ruling party doesn't have to pull a number of administrative abuses before and during the election to stay in office that will go ignored by all of these foreign observers that support "Taiwan's democracy"?

They should just say we support the "DPP to be in power whether fair or not, and if the KMT is in power, then its unfair and not free and we are very concerned."

[Mucha Man]

http://www.taiwanelections.org/

Check out this site on free and fair elections in Taiwan. With the DPP is opposition, there is suddenly an issue of whether elections are fair or not in Taiwan when it was not an issue when the DPP was in power. Just sore loser KMT party and their supporters. Where were these movements from 2000-2008? Taiwan was supposedly in a golden age of democracy and now it has regressed? Why? Because the ruling party doesn't have to pull a number of administrative abuses before and during the election to stay in office that will go ignored by all of these foreign observers that support "Taiwan's democracy"?

They should just say we support the "DPP to be in power whether fair or not, and if the KMT is in power, then its unfair and not free and we are very concerned."

Nice try. Took me all of reading the first paragraph of the website to see that much of the concern was with the influence of China over the elections. That is hardly news, and has been reported and commented on since 1996.

What is new is the forging of close economic ties between Taiwan and China that only one party can assure voters of delivering. And that is a new and insidious development.

The conclusion of the committee was that the elections were mostly free but partly unfair.

Their points were intelligent and match what most observers would note:

Taiwan is in a transitional phase because of the legacy of the authoritarian era. Vote buying is a problem and NEITHER party does enough. The KMT are vastly wealthier which creates an imbalance in campaign funds. China unduly influences the political climate. There is a need for judicial reform and administrative neutrality.

[Betelnut]

I read most of the front page which had concerns over the fairness of the election and not economic or whatever else influences from the mainland which is a separate issue from vote buying and election fraud, or whatever else makes an election unfair.

Vote buying is an issue for legislative elections, but not as much for larger elections and especially a presidential election. No one really believes the KMT won the pres. election because they have more money to buy votes.

My general point was that these voices were not heard when the DPP came to power in 2000. If these observers really observed and just wrote about how good Taiwan was doing with the DPP in power, they would know that Taiwan moved into a new authoritarian era in 1996 when LTH was elected and this continued through the CSB administration which these observers apparently don't care about. Because if the situation favors them, then they say Taiwan is doing well. Now that the KMT and CCP are forging economic ties, its bad for them, so they have to find something to pick at.

Take a look at books written by these scholars and democratic writers in 2000. They were so impressed with Taiwan's transition as if things were golden and turned a blind eye to what the CSB government was really like. Partly because they have it in their heads in stone that the KMT are the bad guys, that they never listen to anything that may suggest otherwise.

What's this business about moving out of the authoritarian age? They make it sound like the Ma government is authoritarian when in fact it is far less authoritarian than any other president of any party in power before it. He's so not authoritarian that he's getting on people's nerves for being soft when he should take more of a stand. Ma just wants everyone to like him because he's afraid of being accused of being anti-Taiwnaese because he was born in Hong Kong.

When you see more commercials on TV for the KMT, it is because they are given money from business people for the campaign. Business people give money to the KMT party for the campaign because they think its what is good for them. The DPP party is not a poor party. It's just a question of how much money they can get for the campaign, etc.

You can't criticize the KMT for being perceived as business friendly. That is just their platform. It's like criticizing a party because they have a more practical platform for Taiwan's economic situation right now.

If more business people donate funds to the KMT, then its to their advantage and this should not be called unfair. That's like saying that because most of the population in Taiwan is so-called "native Taiwanese" or Minnan people, then any election is automatically unfair for a so-called mainlander party because most people vote for their own kind, etc.

It's to the DPP's advantage that they are more "Taiwanese" and it's the KMT's advantage that they are more business friendly with mainland China. When the DPP is in power, do any of these observers come out and say that it's unfair that the DPP are manipulating sentiments for saying things like "Taiwanese should vote for Taiwanese" and that "Taiwanese need to be their own masters"? Lee Tung-Hui just said that again and that's the underlying message of the green camp but not necessarily Tsai Ying-Wen fortunately.

[Mucha Man]

I read most of the front page which had concerns over the fairness of the election and not economic or whatever else influences from the mainland which is a separate issue from vote buying and election fraud, or whatever else makes an election unfair.

From the first page and from the general report by the ICFET:

Foreign Interference

Cross-strait relations in the context of an economically and politically rising China weighs heavily on the election process in Taiwan. It puts tremendous pressures on Taiwan’s democracy and the freedom and fairness of the choices that its voters must make.

If you can't read beyond what you want to see, there is little point discussing a complex issue with you.

[bohica]

It puts tremendous pressures on Taiwan’s democracy and the freedom and fairness of the choices that its voters must make.

More like tremendous pressure on the DPP.

There's nothing "unfair" or "un-free" about people in Taiwan wanting good relations with China(and in turn being rich and prosperous.) China has long ago realized that military threats and saber rattling is going to have the opposite effect so they're now using soft power. Whatever economic incentives China throws Taiwan's way is frankly just smart politics. There's nothing improper about that.

The only people who's complaining about China's "influence" are the greenies who's looking for someone to blame for their election loss.

[Betelnut]

The page is not just addressing the issue of "foreign interference" from the mainland's economic rise. If that was their only issue, I'd have no problem with what they are saying. This issue was more important this time around because Taiwan has already experienced 4 years of benefits from the mainland.

However, that is not the only issue they pointed out. And I was saying that those issues were already prevalent in Taiwan from the LTH days and CSB days, but yet there was no call back in 2000 for these kinds of issues such as "Authoritarian legacy", "vote buying", "administrative power", and "campaign funds".

As long as the DPP was in power, they weren't complaining about these issues and especially when it was the CSB government that was using administrative powers to keep itself in power most notably in 2004 and a failed attempt in 2008.

They make it sound like the KMT used their administrative authority to hold an unfair election when in fact all I am hearing about is combining 2 elections in 1 just before Chinese New Year, which is an inconvenience for everyone. Not just green voters. The article is not very specific as what they mean by "administrative power".

They make it sound like the KMT is the only party that buys votes although they did not say so directly. It implies that vote buying is one of the factors the KMT can win a presidential election, instead of just saying.... "Well, it looks like they have more support!"

Was vote buying an issue when the DPP "won" 2 elections in 2000 and 2004? Were these threats to Taiwan's democracy then? Of course not. Because they had their party in power.

Using administrative power to manipulate the election was a constant issue in 2004 and before the legislative election in 2008 with the CEC constantly making things that should be illegal, "legal". The CEC is under direct control of the ruling party despite "party representation" from all parties and the head of the CEC was Lee Tung-Hui's buddy who could be seen support Tsai at DPP rallies in 2012.

I didn't see any administrative manipulation from the ruling party this time around unless you want to say holding the election in January is automatically unfair for the DPP. For heaven's sake, I hope they schedule the next presidential election according to a poll done by overseas DPP supporters so that the highest number of them can travel back on free airline tickets with EVA airlines in order to make the election as fair as possible!

I already said in my last post that authoritarian legacy is kind of a generalized term and is just putting the current KMT party in a bad light because of its authoritarian past. The KMT needs to be doing authoritarian things right now to be criticized for this. What structural problems are they talking about? They said we have observed several issues. What are they?

If the economic factors from the mainland are such an issue, then their position should be that its unfair the KMT has a business advantage over the DPP because they are so anti-China in their stance, etc. or Tsai isn't making things clear what she will do or whatever.

Their blog page points out these general issues without getting into much detail as far as what they are talking about and my general feeling from the DPP and their supporters is that they are trying to say things are unfair, when in fact they are basically fair.

If the current trend in Taiwan is that the economic relationship with the mainland is the #1 issue instead of "who is a real native Taiwanese", then that's what it is. It's not unfair to any party that Taiwan province is located just outside of Fujian province. If the DPP party can't accept that reality, then things are just going to have continue to be "unfair" for them and these so-called democracy concerned observers are just going to have to keep complaining about basically nothing.

The election wasn't rigged or won via vote buying, so they are just complaining about not having their party in power which is exactly what I see from green talking heads on TV these days. Implying that the election could have been rigged instead of looking at what the party needs to do to gain more appeal among all voters. If the election was rigged, there would be a lawsuit. If a lawsuit was not filed, then its rather annoying to hear about allegations of fraud because that makes it seem like the election doesn't count or something.

I read most of the front page which had concerns over the fairness of the election and not economic or whatever else influences from the mainland which is a separate issue from vote buying and election fraud, or whatever else makes an election unfair.

From the first page and from the general report by the ICFET:

Foreign Interference

Cross-strait relations in the context of an economically and politically rising China weighs heavily on the election process in Taiwan. It puts tremendous pressures on Taiwan’s democracy and the freedom and fairness of the choices that its voters must make.

If you can't read beyond what you want to see, there is little point discussing a complex issue with you.

[cyborg_ninja]

KMT does a lot of vote buying. How do you thing all the gangsters such as yen-ching biou got legislative positions?