Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

[Dog's_Breakfast]

As I write this, there is yet another debate raging in a Forumosa thread about how Taiwan is not part of China. Which leads to the usual discussion about what America should have done in 1945, the San Francisco Treaty, how the ROC no longer exists, etc.

All very nice. By now, we must have had more debates like this than I've had hot meals. So I'm not going to start another one.

What thing I have yet to hear in any of these discussions is exactly how the fierce TI advocates on this forum hope to actually achieve independence. Now, I really don't want to hear about what should have been done years ago, because we can't change the past. Hindsight is always 100%.

What I want to hear is about the future - just what is your proposal? Let us assume for the purpose of this discussion that the DPP wins the next elections for both the presidency and the legislature. So now they've got control - this is the moment many of you have been dreaming of. What should the DPP do now that they've got the power? And I mean seriously - not something (like I just read on that other thread) about "put the KMT and a sinking boat back to China." Yes, that's cute, it's also not going to happen, nor would it be useful.

So what should they do? Referendum on independence? Dispense with the referendum (or dishonor the result if it doesn't go their way) and make a unilateral declaration of independence? After China gets predictably belligerent, ask to be America's 51st state? Or ask Japan to annex Taiwan again? File a lawsuit against China in The Hague? If it comes to war, should Taiwan go for military victory, pray for US intervention, ask the United Nations for help, or surrender? What if China doesn't invade, but simply imposes an economic blockade and the economy collapses? Compromise with China? Would they compromise by then? What kind of terms would China demand at that point?

And if it does come to war, how many of your will stay here, whatever the consequences? Would any of you serve in the Taiwanese military if they allowed it, and would you be willing to go into combat? Will you keep the family here, or send them abroad while you fight it out with the PLA. Will you stay if Taiwan loses or surrenders?

I have my own ideas on this, which I'll go into, but would like to hear yours first.

[Deuce Dropper]

such a 90s argument.

Taiwanese Independence is semi-irrelevant, China and Taiwan have a working model and everyone seems happy.

[Mucha Man]

Yeah, I semi agree with Deuce. There is no political or public will to push for anything better than the disfunctional ever-changing status quo. The DPP will not realistically win the presidency or legislative for decades. I see some kind of political accommodation with China all but inevitable now. Both governments want it, the business elite want it, the US wants it, and the majority of people here seem indifferent.

[Charlie Jack]

By now, we must have had more debates like this than I've had hot meals.

Speaking of hot meals:

After the Russians' victory over the Turks in 1878, Queen Victoria threatened to abdicate if what she perceived as Russian aggression were allowed to stand, but at the same time many Britons were opposed to the idea of going to war in support of the Turks.

The story goes that during those difficulties, Disraeli was attending a banquet when a lady who apparently favored the Queen's view of the matter asked him what he was waiting for. He reportedly replied:

At this moment for peas and potatoes, Madam.

No offense, but I think I'll follow Disraeli's lead on this one.

[cyborg_ninja]

When we kick the KMT out of Taiwan then its all good.

Meh having de facto is nice enough, but de jure is better.

[jimipresley]

When we kick the KMT out of Taiwan then its all good.

Meh having de facto is nice enough, but de jure is better.

Incisive, articulate political commentary. Cutting-edge. We need more of this on forumosa.

[cyborg_ninja]

When we kick the KMT out of Taiwan then its all good.

Meh having de facto is nice enough, but de jure is better.

Incisive, articulate political commentary. Cutting-edge. We need more of this on forumosa.

even jesus had his haters.

[achdizzy1099]

There is a model for how politically restrained satellite countries gain independence from the iron fist of communism. It's called the USSR. It happened in 1990.

When the CCP falls, and it will, the conversation can continue about reorganization and independence for Taiwan. Until then, just suck it up and wait.

Also, there will be no war. Any speak of this is non sense.

but if there was a war, I'd love to stay and fight, but I don't have the right visa for that. If immigration catches me fighting in the revolution on a Student Visa I'll be staring at a hefty fine and deportation!

T

[Mucha Man]

...but if there was a war, I'd love to stay and fight, but I don't have the right visa for that.

he he.

[Enigma]

Democracy would not work in ALL of China, just as it will not work in all of Russia. It would work in small populated areas but not everywhere. Hell, the poor folks in those areas don't give a rat's ass who is the leader. Just leave me alone and let me try to feed my kids. And a school here and there that doesn't fall down with the least tremor would be nice. Democracy works in the Special Administrative Areas and pressure will continue to expand rights for those areas. Not because of U.S. but because so many people people are becoming better educated and have travelled more extensively. Taiwan is caught twixt and tween. Just wait it out and the Chinese people will keep gaining rights and there will be a China. (United Republics of China?), just as there is the Americas, North, Central and South, along with the United States.
Hell, that should cause a hotbed!