Taiwan: independence/(re)unification/status quo/referendum?

[fanglangzhe]

There's always the hope of a major regime change though isn't there? People forget that change, when it comes, can often be very rapid and very dramatic i.e. the collapse of the Soviet bloc or the Arab spring. Admittedly the problem in China's case is that the populace itself is violently opposed to the concept of Taiwanese independence. Plus the Taiwanese themselves are too gutless/money obsessed to ever push the issue.

That's exactly right. Even a democratic China would not allow Taiwan to be independent because the Mainland populace itself is against it. And you're right about the Taiwanese as well. It all points to a grim chance for de jure taiwan independence.

[Weinstock]

Taiwanese will drift towards the mainland naturally. This is why the west spends so much money supporting separatism. When the west runs out of money, the separatism will die, and the Chinese will unify. Blood is thicker than water, and you can see from the Chinese diaspora that Chinese culture runs deep. You see it in Chinese Americans, Indonesian Chinese, and even Chinese Filipinos. I know a guy who's family has been in Taiwan for 200+ years, and you know what his family grave says? Hunan. Bare in mind, this guy has no connection with Hunan at all, and his family was probably in Hunan 400 years ago, because his family actually came from Guang Dong to Taiwan. Chinese people are not like Americans, who don't even know where their ancestors come from. The minute the west, and Japan releases its choke hold on Taiwan, Taiwanese will do what is natural. If you want independence for Taiwan, first cut ties with the west, and Japan. That's the first step. You can't really call yourself independent if your government is dictated by the west and Japan. Look at all the imports in Taiwan. What does Taiwan even produce these days? Every Japanese import means a reduction in Taiwanese jobs. Stop wasting your money on iphones, and make your own indigenous one. For every Abercrombie, or Roots clothing you buy, you can buy 5 of the same thing that is made by your own compatriots. Stop drinking Starbucks, and support your local bubble tea shop. That's how you achieve independence.

[the bear]

Taiwanese will drift towards the mainland naturally. This is why the west spends so much money supporting separatism. When the west runs out of money, the separatism will die, and the Chinese will unify. Blood is thicker than water, and you can see from the Chinese diaspora that Chinese culture runs deep. You see it in Chinese Americans, Indonesian Chinese, and even Chinese Filipinos. I know a guy who's family has been in Taiwan for 200+ years, and you know what his family grave says? Hunan. Bare in mind, this guy has no connection with Hunan at all, and his family was probably in Hunan 400 years ago, because his family actually came from Guang Dong to Taiwan. Chinese people are not like Americans, who don't even know where their ancestors come from. The minute the west, and Japan releases its choke hold on Taiwan, Taiwanese will do what is natural. If you want independence for Taiwan, first cut ties with the west, and Japan. That's the first step. You can't really call yourself independent if your government is dictated by the west and Japan. Look at all the imports in Taiwan. What does Taiwan even produce these days? Every Japanese import means a reduction in Taiwanese jobs. Stop wasting your money on iphones, and make your own indigenous one. For every Abercrombie, or Roots clothing you buy, you can buy 5 of the same thing that is made by your own compatriots. Stop drinking Starbucks, and support your local bubble tea shop. That's how you achieve independence.

blah blah blah..........we got ourselves a Chinese nationalist here and make no mistake.

[printlessfoot]

.... Even a democratic China would not allow Taiwan to be independent because the Mainland populace itself is against it.

It's USA that does not allow Taiwan to be independent (from the USA occupied territory). Both PRC and ROC know very clearly that they don't have a legal right to have a claim of Taiwan territory.

[tuosi]

As I just (6 weeks) started living in Taipei, I think I do not have enough info to have a well-reasoned opinion on this subject.
However, my opinion as an outsider is that Taiwan is behaving as an independent nation at this moment, much more than for example Kosovo was/is (94 nations support its independence).
Is the only reason many people think that Taiwan should not declare independence the threat of a war with the PRC? Is that even realistic?
IMHO, the only thing that China would loose by recognizing Taiwanese independence is their 'pride'. Starting a war would probably result in huge economic losses, a thing valued much higher in 21st century China. This again IMHO.
But maybe because China is gaining more and more power, this would be the perfect moment to declare independence, before it's too late! With 'too late', I mean: before the PRC will have complete power over the world-economy, bigger than NATO or any other group of the traditional leading countries in the world.

[JamescCamp]

As I just (6 weeks) started living in Taipei, I think I do not have enough info to have a well-reasoned opinion on this subject.
However, my opinion as an outsider is that Taiwan is behaving as an independent nation at this moment, much more than for example Kosovo was/is (94 nations support its independence).
Is the only reason many people think that Taiwan should not declare independence the threat of a war with the PRC? Is that even realistic?
IMHO, the only thing that China would loose by recognizing Taiwanese independence is their 'pride'. Starting a war would probably result in huge economic losses, a thing valued much higher in 21st century China. This again IMHO.
But maybe because China is gaining more and more power, this would be the perfect moment to declare independence, before it's too late! With 'too late', I mean: before the PRC will have complete power over the world-economy, bigger than NATO or any other group of the traditional leading countries in the world.

That's pretty much it, in a nutshell.

[hansioux]

China is using the Senkaku islands to intimidate Taiwan. If Taiwanese thinks China would go all battleship against Japan for 3 tiny god forsaken uninhabitable islands, think what they'd do to Taiwan. Frankly, I know the KMT and Chiang family would never allowed Taiwan to declare independence, but Taiwan should have done so back in 1996. That was the perfect timing.

[forealz]

taiwan is independent even if it is not officially recognized on paper. nuff said and case closed.

[Hokwongwei]

Not if you ask the Philippines. Or the UN. Or any other international organization (WTO and WHO excluded).