Taiwan: independence/(re)unification/status quo/referendum?

[enn]

RETURN TO THE MOTHERLAND

This intense desire to RETURN TO THE MOTHERLAND is almost Freudian among several Taiwanese I've known. After all, the Kuomintang is a Mainland Chinese political party/institution whose avowed goal is reunification with the mainland. And Red Chinese officials have pointed this out on many occasions. In fact if my memory serves me sufficiently well, there is a nominal political party still in Red China called the Kuomintang awaiting the return of the parent party under the banner of the PRC.

Red Chinese leadership has stated on several occasions that it would be fine if reunification took another 50 years to accomplish--as long as it is accomplished. And of course members of the KMT are hoping that during the coming 50 years Red China will have accepted the democratic systems of the West and the freedoms they guarantee. Hope on! Hope on! I made a visa run to Macau where I visited the Museum. Return to the Motherland is the almost spiritual theme of the main display of the National Museum in Macau.

On a more tangible note it is true that many of the largest successful foreign companies invested in RED China are Taiwanese. For example, the Foxconn Technology Group produces the Apple I Pod. That's the company hit last year with all those suicides. So, many Taiwanese are very enthusiastic to move to China either because of the almost spiritual love for the Motherland or the more concrete allure to get rich fast by becoming liaisons for foreign capital wishing to invest in China. I have a friend in Taoyuan who is has started a business to become one of the many springboards in Taiwan for foreigners wishing to invest in the 'Greater China' as she calls it. I question the appropriateness of that adjective.

I don't see how a country that raped the sovereignty of Tibet, butchered about a 1,000 students in Tienanmen in 1989, allowed a company to poison its own babies to make a quick buck--blaming it on some NZ company--and points 1,200 missiles across the Taiwan Straits at us can in any way fathomable be considered to be GREAT. Can you?

Tibet--Tienanmen--Taiwan. The 3 important Ts to remember while caught up in the rapture of this whirlwind love for Red China. One consequence of the ever growing hegemony of Red China might be this. With Mr. Moneybags' red star rising to overtake the waning moon of the West, I bet a lot of these unemployed Taiwanese teachers might apply and be accepted to teach Mandarin in the high schools of the USA. If they know English, I wonder if they may be accepted by programs whose goal is to expand Mandarin courses in the Red, White & Blue.

[FurTrader]

only four choices? (independence/(re)unification/status quo/referendum?)

how about a fifth choice? REVOLUTION!

[Taixinomee]

China's veto power only carries as much power as we allow it to carry. Mongolia entered the UN in the 1950's. Taiwan (ROC) was at the time a UN member with a seat on the UN security council. They had the ability to veto. But their veto power didn't keep Mongolia out. The ROC constitution claims sovereignty over mongolia just like the PRC constitution claims sovereignty over Taiwan. Besides in 1971 when PRC finally got in, well ROC's veto power didn't have an effect.

China (ROC) did not use its veto power in the Security Council to block advisement of it's acceptance by the GA.

As for 1971, that never went to the Security Council. The GA ruled that it wasn't a matter of admitting a new member, but rather "restoring" the rights to the rightful sovereign power. Transferring UN rights to successor states has become routine (especially since the collapse of the USSR), but while this was not the first time a successor regime took the seat of a prior regime in the UN, it was the most controversial.

Now if the US were to finally live up to it's principles of democracy and liberty as it's taught in American school text books, and put pressure on as many countries in the world possible also to recognize Taiwan and support their UN membership bid, then the pressure is on China. If every western country and every EU member state were to threaten sanctions against China as long as they keep trying to keep Taiwan out of the UN, China would just drop it and let Taiwan in no questions asked.

Totally agree with this, but it won't happen unless China does something really egregious...

At the end of the day if Taiwan becomes more trouble for China than what it's worth, China won't bother Taiwan anymore. Just like with Mongolia and parts of Russia. It turned out to be way more trouble than what it would even be worth. Russia supported independence for Mongolia and PRC willingly agreed that those parts of Russia which were part of China before are now Russian territory. Too much trouble to claim those areas, so it was just easier just to simply let them go.

Were China a rational actor, it would realize that a friendly, independent Taiwan working together with China (and most Taiwanese genuinely want this as best I can tell) would be far better for Taiwan than either the status quo or forcibly incorporating a very uncooperative Taiwan.

I can't restrain myself but quote from "Romance of the three kingdoms":

long divided must unite,
long united must divide,
thus it has ever been

Viewed from history, Chinese states always reunite before the drift apart again. A constant cycle. Considering that China remained united ever since the Yuan Dynasty until 1949, implies that a division has been overdue. But like it or not the so called "Taiwanese" are lot more Chinese than the so called "Chinese". Considering that Taiwan uses traditional Chinese characters and has a higher Han-Chinese percentage than the mainland, I'd say "Taiwanese" are the real Chinese. So eventually I am sure that reunification will come. I even believe that the two Koreas will reunite one day.

By the way I don't see why "one country, two systems" would not work in Taiwan. When Germany united, Bavaria was extra in everything including Bavarian military. Why would this not work in Taiwan?

[Taixinomee]

only four choices? (independence/(re)unification/status quo/referendum?)

how about a fifth choice? REVOLUTION!

Or 6th choice: one country, countless systems?!

[Mucha Man]

China's veto power only carries as much power as we allow it to carry. Mongolia entered the UN in the 1950's. Taiwan (ROC) was at the time a UN member with a seat on the UN security council. They had the ability to veto. But their veto power didn't keep Mongolia out. The ROC constitution claims sovereignty over mongolia just like the PRC constitution claims sovereignty over Taiwan. Besides in 1971 when PRC finally got in, well ROC's veto power didn't have an effect.

China (ROC) did not use its veto power in the Security Council to block advisement of it's acceptance by the GA.

As for 1971, that never went to the Security Council. The GA ruled that it wasn't a matter of admitting a new member, but rather "restoring" the rights to the rightful sovereign power. Transferring UN rights to successor states has become routine (especially since the collapse of the USSR), but while this was not the first time a successor regime took the seat of a prior regime in the UN, it was the most controversial.

Now if the US were to finally live up to it's principles of democracy and liberty as it's taught in American school text books, and put pressure on as many countries in the world possible also to recognize Taiwan and support their UN membership bid, then the pressure is on China. If every western country and every EU member state were to threaten sanctions against China as long as they keep trying to keep Taiwan out of the UN, China would just drop it and let Taiwan in no questions asked.

Totally agree with this, but it won't happen unless China does something really egregious...

At the end of the day if Taiwan becomes more trouble for China than what it's worth, China won't bother Taiwan anymore. Just like with Mongolia and parts of Russia. It turned out to be way more trouble than what it would even be worth. Russia supported independence for Mongolia and PRC willingly agreed that those parts of Russia which were part of China before are now Russian territory. Too much trouble to claim those areas, so it was just easier just to simply let them go.

Were China a rational actor, it would realize that a friendly, independent Taiwan working together with China (and most Taiwanese genuinely want this as best I can tell) would be far better for Taiwan than either the status quo or forcibly incorporating a very uncooperative Taiwan.

I can't restrain myself but quote from "Romance of the three kingdoms":

long divided must unite,
long united must divide,
thus it has ever been

Viewed from history, Chinese states always reunite before the drift apart again. A constant cycle. Considering that China remained united ever since the Yuan Dynasty until 1949, implies that a division has been overdue. But like it or not the so called "Taiwanese" are lot more Chinese than the so called "Chinese". Considering that Taiwan uses traditional Chinese characters and has a higher Han-Chinese percentage than the mainland, I'd say "Taiwanese" are the real Chinese. So eventually I am sure that reunification will come. I even believe that the two Koreas will reunite one day.

By the way I don't see why "one country, two systems" would not work in Taiwan. When Germany united, Bavaria was extra in everything including Bavarian military. Why would this not work in Taiwan?

What do you consider the natural and legal extents of China? It's territory has grown and shrunk over the centuries. Do you think that China has the right to claim any territory that was once within it's power, even if 1000 years ago? Would you give Great Britain the same right, or Turkey, or Rome? How about Mongolia?

Taiwan won't unify with China without force. Over 80% of the population is opposed to it. That number would shrink. Ethnicity is meaningless as the experience of North America, Australia, New Zealand, show. None of these countries, despite being founded by British settlers, considers itself part of Britain. Nor for that matter does Vancouver consider itself part of China.

Taiwan was part of the Qing Empire for a short period of time and only about half the territory was ever administered. It is pure lies to claim it has always been part of China and so must one day "reunite".

[Taixinomee]

What do you consider the natural and legal extents of China? It's territory has grown and shrunk over the centuries. Do you think that China has the right to claim any territory that was once within it's power, even if 1000 years ago? Would you give Great Britain the same right, or Turkey, or Rome? How about Mongolia?

Taiwan won't unify with China without force. Over 80% of the population is opposed to it. That number would shrink. Ethnicity is meaningless as the experience of North America, Australia, New Zealand, show. None of these countries, despite being founded by British settlers, considers itself part of Britain. Nor for that matter does Vancouver consider itself part of China.

Taiwan was part of the Qing Empire for a short period of time and only about half the territory was ever administered. It is pure lies to claim it has always been part of China and so must one day "reunite".

I only know it will reunite one day as the novel states. That is what Chinese and Germans do in contrast to Anglo-Saxons who mostly aim to split apart.

[ironfist]

now that president Ma is elected again, He will be closer than ever with China...In a way Taiwan is reunified by the economy/trade with China. Later pretty much Taiwan will be reunified?

[fanglangzhe]

As has been expressed in other recent posts by other forum members, the chance of de jure independence ever happening is as high as pigs growing wings and flying. Barring a collapse of China, that is. Thus, the most popular choice in this poll is virtually impossible.

[the bear]

As has been expressed in other recent posts by other forum members, the chance of de jure independence ever happening is as high as pigs growing wings and flying. Barring a collapse of China, that is. Thus, the most popular choice in this poll is virtually impossible.

There's always the hope of a major regime change though isn't there? People forget that change, when it comes, can often be very rapid and very dramatic i.e. the collapse of the Soviet bloc or the Arab spring. Admittedly the problem in China's case is that the populace itself is violently opposed to the concept of Taiwanese independence. Plus the Taiwanese themselves are too gutless/money obsessed to ever push the issue.

[fanglangzhe]

There's always the hope of a major regime change though isn't there? People forget that change, when it comes, can often be very rapid and very dramatic i.e. the collapse of the Soviet bloc or the Arab spring. Admittedly the problem in China's case is that the populace itself is violently opposed to the concept of Taiwanese independence. Plus the Taiwanese themselves are too gutless/money obsessed to ever push the issue.

That's exactly right. Even a democratic China would not allow Taiwan to be independent because the Mainland populace itself is against it. And you're right about the Taiwanese as well. It all points to a grim chance for de jure taiwan independence.