TaipeiDawg wrote:The old 'you will just leave if there's a war' argument has been around for quite a long time and is pretty worn out by now. Anyway, all the fleeing foreigners would have to line up behind all the dual passport holding locals to leave Taiwan.
If this shite hits the fan, there won't be anybody checkin passports at the helipad
If Taiwan were to declare independence, I don't think that China's response would be immediate full-scale military invasion. I'd expect a well thought-out strategy of intimidation which would undermine Taiwan's will. Very easy to do, in my opinion, since the average Taiwanese is not ready to tolerate hardships.
How to do it exactly? First, torpedo or missile attack on a couple of Taiwanese-flagged container ships at the mouth of Kaohsiung and Keelung (Jilong) harbors. Publicly announce that in the future, all container ships trying to enter the harbors will be destroyed. Foreign carriers will not take the risk, and will pull all their ships out. Taiwan's export-oriented economy plummets. With no oil and coal flowing into Taiwan, the electric power plants (other than nuclear ones) have to shut down, plunging most of the island into darkness. (Note to you anti-nuke folks, I told you so). This shuts down most of the manufacturing, railways and highway transport. Now, just sit back and wait while panicked wealthy Taiwanese and foreign English teachers (like most of the Taiwan independence advocates here on Forumosa) panic to get out of Taiwan with all their money. Foreigners may get to jump the queue on the Taiwanese because some foreign governments will provide "evacuation flights" only for their citizens. I know for a fact that AIT has a plan in place to do this should the need arise (I know the local guy here who is in charge of this).
China may speed things up by, every few days, lobbing a missile someplace into a city, even without an explosive warhead. Just do it for the psychological effect. Hit Taipei 101, for instance, without blowing up the building, but announce publicly that if Taiwan doesn't surrender soon, they are going to arm the missiles with explosives or maybe chemical weapons. Panic ensues. Food grows scarce due to hoarding and lack of imports. The streets are no longer safe.
Will the USA come riding to the rescue, as the Taiwanese expect? I doubt it very much. For all the bluster, the USA won't risk the enormous economic consequences of having China cut off all exports to the USA. What is more important to US politicians, freedom for Taiwan or profits for Wal-Mart? I rest my case.