ABC wrote:So the point that's been said a couple of times is that the Chinese government will have a huge problem with its people due to nationalism, if not collapse altegether, if China is to lose Taiwan.
Frankly, I don't see how China can even "lose" something it doesn't control in the first place.
I think the consensus was that the PRC would not collapse if it were forced to acknowledge that Taiwan was independent.
I object to your wording, "China is to lose Taiwan", as it implies that I have said that Taiwan is a part of China right now.
ABC wrote:And lets say Taiwan does get recognition as an independent country, why would the Chinese people be angry at their government? Surely the Chinese people will be pissed, but it'll be at the countries/organizations that decideded to extend Taiwan such recognition, not at the Chinese government.
Because it's the Chinese government that would have decided to extend Taiwan such recognition....
ABC wrote:So what's this saying that China will have problem with its people or even collapse if it were to lose Taiwan? That's like saying Chinese people would be mad at the Chinese government for the US selling arms to Taiwan, like it's China that decided to have the US sell arms to Taiwan or something.
1) Because it's the Chinese government that would have decided to extend Taiwan such recognition....
2) Because of all the arguments I've read (and cited in this thread in earlier posts) saying that if 1) happened then China would collapse.
ABC wrote:IceEage: How would the above assertion fit in with your wild scenarios? Clearly in the first scenario the Chinese people would have endorsed Taiwan independence(thus electing a pro-TI government in a democratic election). For the rest of the scenarios the status of Taiwan would seem to be the last thing on people's mind then.
1) Agreed with you. If this actually happened, it would contradict the PRC's current stance.
2) PRC collapse causes formal Taiwan independence. Not the other way around.
3B) This one is the most ironic. Formal Taiwan independence SAVES the PRC from collapsing! Ha!
I think 3A) is the only scenario that comes close to having formal Taiwan independence, defined as the PRC recognizing Taiwan as an independent country, causing the PRC to collapse. But in this scenario, such recognition is just a spoil of war, a side effect rather than a direct cause of PRC collapse.