If China invades Taiwan, should the US intervene militarily?

[Charlie Jack]

The US won WWII. . . .

I would say that a number of countries won WWII, but if I had to pick one, it would be Russia.

. . . and the cold war.

I would say rather that Soviet-style socialism lost the Cold War. And why? Not enough cheeseburgers. Not enough gewgaws and gimcracks. Or to steal from Steve Martin, not enough fur sinks, electric dog polishers, gasoline powered turtlenecks.

Now we've had a war of economic power and influence where China has conquered, all without firing a single shot. The US, once the richest nation on earth has become the biggest debtor in the history of civilization while China in a few decades has become our biggest creditor.

Now that the US is teetering under the weight of its on debt the Chinese are quietly decoupling themselves from our economy. Last June they lowered their US bond holdings by 3%, the greatest amount to date. In just the last few years China has doubled their gold reserves and is encouraging citizens to buy precious metals and pushing banks to offer more precious metals products. In short, they are preparing for a collapse of the dollar and the demise of the US as a global economic superpower.

The day is rapidly approaching when the Chinese will be ready to let the US sink into a financial abyss and enjoy the fruits of their own shrewd economic policies. At this point the Taiwanese government will be smart to make nice with the mainland as the US will be incapable of being an effective ally. Until then, China will have no interest in an armed conflict with Taiwan (and by extension, the US), they're much too smart for that. Besides, their methods of attaining economic dominance are far more effective than the US style of blowing things up.

Sorry America, China has won the war you didn't realize you were fighting, have another cheeseburger.

But since the late 1960s I've been hearing and reading the claim that the U.S. was on the way out. And in a way it was true then and still is, for this reason: we never were the big boss--at least not boss enough to control everything, or even to come within miles of it.

And the knowledge that we can't control everything certainly predates the 1960s:

Winston [Churchill] is trying to relive the days of World War II. In those days, he had the enjoyable feeling that he and our President were sitting on some rather Olympian platform with respect to the rest of the world, and directing world affairs from that point of vantage. Even if this picture were an accurate one of those days, it would have no application to the present. But it was only partially true, even then, as many of us who, in various corners of the world, had to work out the solutions for nasty local problems are well aware. In the present international complexities, any hope of establishing such a relationship is completely fatuous.

--Dwight D. Eisenhower, diary entry, January 6, 1953

One more quote from old Ike, this one from 1952:

Asians should fight Asians.

So what I'm gonna do is, I'm gonna have another cheeseburger.

[Screaming Jesus]

We need enough neutron bombs to wipe out every major Chinese city, then an army big enough to go in and shoot survivors. Like something out of Jack London's "The Unparalleled Invasion." (The story uses biological warfare, but I don't think that would really work.)

[jeff_franklin]

Absolutely! The sooner Communist China falls and the mainland Chinese people establish a true and free Republic like Taiwan the sooner we can all have a better chance at world peace. I'm all for boycotting Communist China and doing all the U.S. can to help the Taiwanese economy and their defense.



http://cultbustersgalactica.yuku.com/directory

[sulavaca]

Oh dear! It's gone all

[Vorkosigan]

I think the question is not "will the US intervene" but "can the US avoid intervening?"

Several longtime Taiwan watchers are fond of making this point, but it is one worth thinking about: any Chinese attack on Taiwan has to come through Japanese air and sea space. It will be very difficult for them to avoid.

The US is bound BY TREATY to defend Japanese air and sea space. Hence it will be difficult to avoid triggering a US military response at some point, though the US will probably attempt to make it look as though all other options are exhausted.

If you were a Chinese war planner, how would you finesse this issue?

I'm thinking Pearl Harbor again -- since the US is going to come in anyway, may as well hit them before they hit us, Beijing's planners might well decide. Alternatively they may come up with some awkward invasion plan where they land in Taichung and then paralyze responses through air interdiction.

But my own view is that they will begin with attacks on the port in Danshui to secure their logistics, and other operations in the north, to get the war finished with before the US intervenes. Especially if there is a pro-China government in office, totally uninterested in resistance in the first place.....

[Vorkosigan]

'should' - yes.

But they won't. Actually, they probably can't anymore.

The Taiwan Relations Act of 1972 stipulates that the U.S. is required to "provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character", and "to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan." .

The TRA DOES NOT require the US to sell arms to Taiwan. It merely states that selling arms is the policy of the US. The actual decision on arms sales is left up to the Preznit.

Vorkosigan

[ludahai]

Well, would Taiwan intervene if China invaded the US? I think not.

You know, back before Carter unilaterally abrogated the mutual defense treaty, there was a provision for Taiwan to come to the aid of the U.S. Neither the treaties with Japan or South Korea had such a clause.

[urodacus]

neither Japan nor South Korea were US-military occupied territories. Taiwan was, and still is in the eyes of some.

[greenmark]

Why would China invade anyway, when all they need to do to get their way is lob a few missiles into the Taiwan Straights?

[Bubba 2 Guns]

Why would China invade anyway, when all they need to do to get their way is lob a few missiles into the Taiwan Straights?

That didn't work last time they still elected Lee, Deng-Smiley Guy. Two months of an embargo and this place would fall. They'd be eating their children.

The people in Taipei would be waving white flags at the first brown out or food shortage. "What no cable? Quick! What are the words to The East is Red?"

The southerners--they're a different story--they could eat rocks and drink rat blood, it'd be a Viet Cong holiday for them.

The northern cities couldn't sustain themselves for very long-most major cities only have 3 days of food anyway.

Yes, the US and the rest of the world should intervene.